Category Archives: Deficit

Jobless claims jump to 496,000, February 25, 2010, new claims for unemployment benefits, four week average rose, 8.4 million jobs lost, 4.6 million continuing claims, North Carolina had biggest increase

Jobless claims jump to 496,000, February 25, 2010

From Fox News,  February 25, 2010.

“New Jobless Claims Jumped to 496,000 as Heavy Snow Caused Rise in Layoffs”

“The number of new claims for unemployment benefits jumped unexpectedly last week as heavy snows caused layoffs to rise.”

“The department said Thursday that first-time claims for unemployment insurance rose by 22,000 to a seasonally adjusted 496,000. Wall Street analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expected a drop to 455,000.”

“The four-week average has risen by about 30,000 in the past month, raising concerns that job cuts are continuing. Initial claims had fallen sharply over the summer and fall but the improvement has stalled since the year began.

The economy has grown for six months but is not yet spurring new hiring. Many economists point out that the current recovery is weak compared to the aftermath of previous deep recessions.

The Labor Department said earlier this month that while the unemployment rate fell to 9.7 percent from 10 percent, employers still cut 20,000 jobs. The economy has lost 8.4 million jobs since the recession began.”

“Among the states, North Carolina had biggest increase in claims, with 5,897, which it attributed to layoffs in the construction, furniture and mining industries. Pennsylvania and Kentucky also reported large increases. The state data lags initial claims by one week.”

Read more:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/02/25/new-jobless-claims-rise-unexpectedly/

February 18 2010, Jobless Claims rise, Inflation jumps, Economy Wobbles, New applications unemployment insurance surged last week, unemployment benefits increased 31,000, producer prices increased sharply in January

February 18 2010, Jobless Claims rise

From CNBC.com, february 18, 2010.

“Jobless Claims, Inflation Jump as Economy Wobbles”

“The number of U.S. workers filing new applications for unemployment insurance unexpectedly surged last week, while producer prices increased sharply in January, raising potential hurdles for the economic recovery.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 31,000 to 473,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday. That compared to market expectations for 430,000.
Another report from the department showed prices paid at the farm and factory gate rose a faster than expected 1.4 percent from December after a 0.4 percent gain in December, as higher gasoline prices and unusually cold temperatures helped boost energy costs.
“When you have PPI moving up and still no progress in the jobs situation, that doesn’t bode well for continued improvement in equity prices,” said Alan Lancz, president at Alan B. Lancz & Associates in Toledo, Ohio.”

“Another report from the department showed prices paid at the farm and factory gate rose a faster than expected 1.4 percent from December after a 0.4 percent gain in December, as higher gasoline prices and unusually cold temperatures helped boost energy costs.
“When you have PPI moving up and still no progress in the jobs situation, that doesn’t bode well for continued improvement in equity prices,” said Alan Lancz, president at Alan B. Lancz & Associates in Toledo, Ohio.”

Read more:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35457298

Shadow Inventory Of Troubled Mortgages, Standard and Poors, US housing prices, Mortgage crisis may be far from over, More delinquencies and lower home prices are to come

Shadow Inventory Of Troubled Mortgages

From Standard and Poors, February 16, 2010.

“The Shadow Inventory Of Troubled Mortgages Could Undo U.S. Housing Price Gains”

“In summer 2009, the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose for the first time in virtually two years. Since May 2009, the index has risen by over 3%, suggesting that the necessary correction to U.S. residential home prices is nearing an end. However, in Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services’ view, the mortgage crisis may be far from over. The overhang of homes heading toward liquidation suggests more delinquencies and lower home prices are to come.
The current “shadow inventory” (including all delinquent loans, not only those that are real estate owned [REO]) of troubled mortgages will likely take about 33 months?or nearly three years?to clear at the current rate of liquidations. Moreover, we believe this estimate is conservative, as we do not assume any loans that have yet to show any serious signs of distress to date will default in the future and further increase the overhang of homes. Nonetheless, we believe that in reality additional loans will default in the near future due to the weak economic environment, distressed residential home values, and the resulting contraction in the supply of mortgage finance.
We believe that the recent reversal in housing prices is the result of a temporary constriction in the supply of foreclosed homes on the market. This temporary constriction ensued because servicers have completed fewer foreclosures due to court delays, servicing backlogs, and political pressure to keep borrowers in their homes. However, there is a rapidly growing shadow inventory of properties where borrowers are delinquent but foreclosure has not been completed. Overall, it is our opinion that recent positive housing reports should not be construed as a sign that the distress in the residential housing market is abating, but rather should be attributed to the temporarily limited supply of homes on the market.”

“A Swelling Number Of Distressed Loans Creates The Shadow Inventory
The monthly balance of distressed loans currently outstanding relative to the monthly balance of those that pay off, or close, suggests that there is a growing shadow inventory of loans that need to undergo the closure process. In January 2005, the balance of distressed loans outstanding was about 18x that of distressed loans that closed. Today, the balance of outstanding to closed distressed loans has increased to about 31x (see chart 2).”

Chart 2

Read more:

http://www.standardandpoors.com/ratings/articles/en/us/?assetID=1245206147429

Census Boondoggle, Michelle Malkin report, US Census Bureau, National Democrat Future Voter Outreach Drive, Super Bowl ad, Ed Begley Jr, 2.5 million dollar ad, Obama When times are tough you tighten your belts

Hats off again to Michelle Malkin who tells it like it is.
From Michelle Malkin, February 5, 2010.

“The Super-Sized Census Boondoggle”

“If only the federal government were as responsible with our money as Pepsi is with theirs. The soda giant has been in the Super Bowl ad business for more than two decades. But this year, Pepsi determined it was economically unwise to pay $3 million for a 30-second spot. So, who’s foolish enough to pay for Super Bowl gold-plated airtime? You and me and Washington, D.C.
The U.S. Census Bureau will squander $2.5 million on a half-minute Super Bowl ad starring D-list celebrity Ed Begley, Jr., plus two pre-game blurbs and 12-second “vignettes” featuring Super Bowl anchor James Brown. It’s a drop in the Census boondoggle bucket (otherwise known as the tax-subsidized National Democrat Future Voter Outreach Drive). The Obama White House has allocated a total of $340 million on an “unprecedented” promotional blitz for the 2010 Census. That’s on top of $1 billion in stimulus money siphoned off for increased Census “public outreach” and staffing. In all, the Census will triple its total budget from 2000 to $15 billion.
Ads pimping the Census have already appeared during the Golden Globe awards and will broadcast during the Daytona 500 and NCAA Final Four championships. Some $80 million will be poured into multi-lingual ads in 28 languages from Arabic to Yiddish. Racial and ethnic groups have been squabbling over their share of the pie.
The U.S. census is a decennial census mandated by our constitution. Should Americans know about it? Sure. Should the p.r. budget become a bottomless slush fund in recessionary times? Surely not.”

Read more:

http://michellemalkin.com/2010/02/05/the-super-sized-census-boondoggle/

Thank you Michelle Malkin for all that you do.

Wells

“As if overpriced TV ads, online videos no one watches, and indulgent, cross-country caravans weren’t enough, the Census Bureau is also enlisting 56 million schoolchildren to pester their parents and act as junior government enumerators. Educrats are spending several billions more on math and social studies lessons peddling the Census. Overzealous Census partners such as the National Association of Latino Elected Officials have distributed recruitment propaganda urging constituents to participate because “Joseph and Mary participated in the Census.” Goodness knows what kind of fear-mongering curricula the kids are being served in the name of counting heads – and shaping the electoral landscape.

“When times are tough, you tighten your belts,” President Obama lectured us. “You don’t blow a bunch of cash on Vegas.” Coincidentally, the Census Road Tour junketeers just wrapped up a visit in Vegas. Next stop? You guessed it: The Super Bowl in Miami. Taxpayers should start crying foul.”

Sarah Palin blasts Obama administration policies, Nashville Tea Party convention, Palin take on Obama, 2012, Palin attacks Obama foreign policy, Obama terrorists, Fox News Sunday, Sarah Palin video

Sarah Palin blasts Obama administration policies at Nashville Tea Party convention

From Fox News, February 7, 2010.

“Palin ‘Would Be Willing’ to Take On Obama in 2012”

“Sarah Palin has President Obama in her sights, telling FoxNews.com she “would be willing” to challenge him in the 2012 presidential race.

The former Alaska governor, in an interview Saturday on the sidelines of the National Tea Party Convention in Nashville, said President Obama’s “lack of experience” has held him back his first year in office and that she would put her credentials up against his any day.

“I would be willing to if I believe that it’s right for the country,” Palin said when asked if she would run for president in 2012.

She qualified the statement, adding that she sees “many” other potential candidates who are “in as strong or stronger position than I am to take on the White House and if they’re in a better position than I in three years, I’ll support them.”

But the former GOP vice presidential nominee told “Fox News Sunday”: “I won’t close the door that perhaps could be open for me in the future.””

“Palin slammed Obama in her Nashville speech for his foreign and national security policies. And with health care reform on the ropes, she told FoxNews.com it’s time to pull the plug.

“I sure wish that the present tool being used to reform health care would die, but I don’t trust as far as I can throw them some of the people who are saying ok, we’ll slow down,” she said. “What they’re working on today there in Congress and the White House, it needs to die.””

Read more:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/02/07/palin-willing-obama/

Real unemployment rate, February 6 2010, Jobless claims, More jobs lost, Government surveys, Americans not looking for jobs

“And if all others accepted the lie which the Party imposed
–if all records told the same tale–then the lie passed into
history and became truth. “Who controls the past,” ran the
Party slogan, “controls the future: who controls the present
controls the past.”…George Orwell, “1984″


Yesterday, February 5, 2010, we reported that the supposed latest unemployment rate is 9.7 %, while at the same time unemployment claims rose again for the last week.

“The unemployment rate dropped from 10 percent because a survey of households found the number of employed Americans rose by 541,000, the Labor Department said Friday. The job losses are calculated from a separate survey of employers.

The department also revised its past employment estimates to show that job losses from the Great Recession have been much worse than previously stated. The economy has shed 8.4 million jobs since the downturn began in December 2007, up from a previous figure of 7.2 million.

That’s the most jobs lost in any recession, as a percent of total employment, since World War II.”

“The Labor Department says unemployment claims rose 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 480,000 last week. Economists had predicted claims would drop to 460,000.”

“Stock futures weakened Thursday as a rise in weekly jobless claims damped hopes about a key employment report Friday.”
Real unemployment rate?

From Fox News, February 05, 2010

“The Real Story Behind Our Unemployment Numbers”

“A slight improvement in the jobless rate but what is the government hiding about the picture for most of 2009?”

“Most people seem to believe that the number of Americans with jobs is a clearly identifiable number. All you do is count up the number of people with jobs. Unfortunately, that isn’t the way it works. The number reported each month is based on surveys, and surveys have can often have problems. As it turns out, the surveys estimating the number of people with jobs reported over the last couple of years suffered from some really big problems. The economy actually lost about 824,000 more jobs during the recession than we previously thought.
But those adjustments have so far only been made through March 2009, and there are strong reasons to believe that the survey data since then also needs to be adjusted downward.
There are two ways economists measure the number of jobs, the establishment survey that asks about 370,000 employers how many people they are employing and the household survey that asks about 110,000 people each month whether they are working. The establishment survey is often given more weight because about 40 million Americans work for the companies surveyed, a lot more than the 110,000 people interviewed in the other survey. But 110,000 people still make up a huge sample (remember that a big survey for a presidential election might involve 2,000 people), and it is hard to ignore its results. The household survey is also what is used to calculate the unemployment rate.”

“These recent errors are quite large. The error in estimating the number of jobs from April 2008 to March 2009 was 10 times greater than the average error over the preceding eight years. What does this mean in terms of jobs? Normally the government would underestimate the number of new jobs by 80,000 and this time it was overestimating them by about 800,000.”

Read more:

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2010/02/05/john-lott-unemployment-jobs-bureau-labor-statistics-grim/

Do the government numbers “smell right” to you?

Unemployment rate, February 5 2010, Jobless rate, Weekly claims report, Labor Department, January 2010, November gains?, Obama administration job killing policies, 1984, Orwellian spin, Stocks drop on rise in weekly jobless claims

“The past is whatever the records and the memories agree upon.
And since the party is in full control of all records, and in
equally full control of the minds of it’s members, it follows
that the past is whatever the party chooses to make it. Six
means eighteen, two plus two equals five, war is peace,
freedom is slavery, ignorance is strength.”… George Orwell

The Obama camp is often spoke of in Orwellian terms. 1984 manifested. Jobless claims for the past week rise, the stock market reacts unfavorably and suddenly the unemployment rate is 9.7 percent? News reports in George Orwell’s “1984” were constantly altered as a matter of practice to reflect the image and goals of Big Brother. Read the following reports and derive your own conclusions.
From Fox News, February 5, 2010.

“Jobless Rate Falls Unexpectedly to 9.7 Percent in January”

“WASHINGTON – The unemployment rate dropped unexpectedly in January to 9.7 percent, while employers shed 20,000 jobs, according to a report that offered hope the economy will add jobs soon.

The unemployment rate dropped from 10 percent because a survey of households found the number of employed Americans rose by 541,000, the Labor Department said Friday. The job losses are calculated from a separate survey of employers.

The department also revised its past employment estimates to show that job losses from the Great Recession have been much worse than previously stated. The economy has shed 8.4 million jobs since the downturn began in December 2007, up from a previous figure of 7.2 million.

That’s the most jobs lost in any recession, as a percent of total employment, since World War II.

The figure for November was revised higher, however, to show a gain of 64,000 jobs. That was initially reported as a gain of 4,000.”

“The federal government has begun hiring workers to perform the 2010 census, which added 9,000 jobs. That process could add as many as 1.2 million jobs this year, though they will all be temporary.

But job cuts at the state and local levels canceled out those gains, as government employment fell by 8,000.

The construction industry lost more jobs than other sector, dropping 75,000. Most of that loss came from the commercial building sector, the department said.

Still, jobs remain scarce even as the economy is recovering: Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the nation’s output, has risen for two straight quarters. GDP rose by 5.7 percent in the October-December quarter, the fastest pace in six years.

Many economists say businesses are reluctant to add workers because it’s not clear whether the recovery will continue once government stimulus measures, such as tax credits for home buyers, fade this spring.

The debate over health care reform and the scheduled expiration of some Bush administration tax cuts at the end of this year may also hold back some employers, many economists said.”

Read more:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/02/05/job-losses-worse/

From Canadian Business, February 4, 2010

“Stocks drop as unexpected rise in weekly jobless claims brings concern about economic recovery”

“Stocks are dropping as a rise in weekly jobless claims dampens hopes about a key employment report Friday.

A recovery in employment is seen as the biggest obstacle to a rebound in the economy and the unexpected increase in weekly unemployment claims Thursday is providing a reminder that a recovery will be difficult.

The Labor Department says unemployment claims rose 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 480,000 last week. Economists had predicted claims would drop to 460,000.”

“Stock futures weakened Thursday as a rise in weekly jobless claims damped hopes about a key employment report Friday.

A recovery in employment is seen as the biggest obstacle to a rebound in the economy and the unexpected increase in weekly unemployment claims provided another reminder that a recovery will be difficult. The report reduced expectations that the government’s January jobs report on Friday will show that employers added workers in the first month of the year.”

Read more:

http://www.canadianbusiness.com/markets/market_news/article.jsp?content=D9DLDOH00

From the US Department of Labor, February 4, 2010.

“UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT”

“In the week ending Jan. 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 480,000, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 472,000. The 4-week moving average was 468,750, an increase of 11,750 from the previous week’s revised average of 457,000.”

Read more:

http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm
The DJIA is at 9,961  down 41 as I post this.

Blanche Lincoln, Obama Health Care Bill, Public Policy Polling, February 2 2010, Lincoln losing to John Boozman, Arkansas Senate race, Lincoln approval rating 27%

From Public Policy Polling, February 2, 2010.

“Blanche Lincoln Poll”

“John Boozman will enter the Arkansas Senate race this weekend as the frontrunner. He leads incumbent Blanche Lincoln by an amazing 56-33 margin in our first poll of the race.

Lincoln’s approval rating has sunk to just 27%, with 62% of voters in the state disapproving of her. She’s at a middling 51% even within her own party and just 17% of independents and 9% of Republicans are happy with how she’s doing.

A look inside the health care issue gives a good indication of how Lincoln has managed now to get it from all sides. 61% of voters in the state oppose the President’s plan, and among those folks Lincoln’s approval rating is just 8% with 79% of them expressing the belief that she’s too liberal. But she’s managed to antagonize a lot of the people who support the Democratic health care plan as well- 36% of them think she’s too conservative and her approval with them is just 57%. Barack Obama’s at 95% with that same group of voters.

What it all adds up to is Boozman winning 89% of the Republican vote while Lincoln’s at just 68% with Democrats. And Boozman has a 66-20 lead with independents as well.”

Read more:

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/02/blanche-lincoln-poll.html

MoveOnMary.org, Senator Mary Landrieu recall initiative, Louisiana Statutes, Recall petitions, Signatures of voters registered on November 4th 2008, US Constitution

Whether the good citizens of Louisiana are successful or not at removing Senator Mary Landrieu from office, it is good to know that concerned citizens are attempting this and that statutes exist to permit it. And yes, I do believe that the 10th Amendment is pertinent.

From the MoveOnMary.org website.

“Is it Possible ?

No doubt, gathering enough signatures to remove a currently seated United States Seantor will be difficult.

Our legislators, no doubt, did not want recall petitions to be used willy-nilly everytime someone gets annoyed by current office holders. They’ve made it difficult enough by requiring at least 33% of the voters who were registered to vote at the time of the office holders election.

What this translates to, in this attempt to remove Mary Landrieu, is the collection of 981,873 signatures of voters who were registered to vote on November 4th 2008. Do we believe this to happen easily? Certainly not. Is it really possible to achieve our goal, given the whole hearted participation of supporters who really want to restore some semblance of sanity with our elected officials? Yes, we really can. Yes, it will take a lot of work, but, it can be done. We certainly would not have ventured into this effort, were it impossible. You can download the voter registration data from the Secretary of State web site at:

http://electionstatistics.sos.louisiana.gov/Data/Post_Election_Statistics/Statewide/2008_1104_sta.pdf.

Well, you’re probably already hearing from the “conservative” nay-sayers already. You may be hearing all kinds of reasons that you should not participate in this effort. I’ve already had a coulple of conversations with “Conservative activists” trying to dissuade me from participationg in this effort. This morning, one gentleman who is a self declared “leader” in the Tea Party movement expressed to me his own reasons why I should give this up already. Some of these I’d like to share with you now.

1) “It can’t be done!”

Sorry, but that defeatest attitude isn’t one of my core attitudes.

2) “It’s never been done before.”

Well, he was correct. Of course, it will never ever be done until someone really tries to get it done.

3) “State law only provides for the recall of State and Local Officials”

When I asked him if he could give me the actual Louisiana Statute he was talking about, he told me that it would take a couple of week to get it to me. But, of course, he did know the statute. Until he gets that information to me, I’ll have to fall back on Louisiana RS 18:1300.1 §1300 (Link). This statute, specifically addressing the recall of elected officials, states, “Any public officer, excepting judges of the courts of record, may be recalled”. Nowhere, could I find in that statute an exception to Federal officials nor anything that would describe a U.S. Senator as something different that a “Public Officer”.

4) “The Supreme Court has already held that States cannot recall U.S. Representatives or Senators.”

Well, again, when I asked for this case to be cited, it couldn’t be. Neither the U.S. nor the Louisiana Supreme Court has ever heard or made a decision concerning the recall of U.S. Represntatives or Senators.

5) “The Constitution doesn’t provide a means to recall U.S. Representatives or Senators”.

True. There are lots of issues that the U.S. Constitution does not address. That’s why our founding fathers later included the 10th Amendment (link). It states simply, “The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.” In simplest terns, since the U.S. Constitution has NOT provided a means for the citizens to remove Representatives or Senators and has NOT forbidden the States or the people from doing so, then it is reserved to the States or the people. Fortunately, Louisiana is one of the 18 states that have passed laws providing for the recalling of “Any public officer” other than judges. U.S. Representatives and Senators or NOT judges, so can be recalled.

6) “The 10th Amendment forbid it.”

The Tenth Amendment of which Constitution? See note 5.

7) “Constitution experts have …..”

Sorry, but Constitutional experts are simply people like you and I, who have opinions. Some have the opinion that it can be done, some have the opinion that it can’t be done.

 

Thoughout the internet, in the social networking groups, in the blogs, etc., there have been many who have made a lot of noise about recalling Mary Landrieu. Up until now, I’m sure it has been an amusement to her ilk. On December 29, 2009, Someone finally did something about it and filed the petition with the Secretary of Sate’s office. I for one am enthusiastically joining in the effort and will never look back.

Legally, we CAN recall Mary Landrieu. Ethically and morally, we CAN recall Mary Landrieu. Ethically and morally, we SHOULD recall Mary Landrieu. I can promise, if we accomplish this daunting task, it will have a snowball effect in Baton Rouge AND Washington, Nay-sayers notwithstanding. One thing is a fact, however, as long as we continue to roll over and play victim, we will continue to be made fools out of by the likes of Mary Landrieu. Attending meetings and rallies, waving banners and placards and making a lot of noise changes NOTHING … if we do nothing else to change things. Louisiana voters are blessed with the statutes allowing us to recall public officials who are derelict in their duty, and we should take advantage of those laws. Yes, laws do mean something … as long as we use those laws.

I want to do something about the problems in Washington. What about you?”

http://moveonmary.org

NC unemployment rate, Historic high, Obama failures and lies, NC counties, NC rate 11.2 percent, Obama Ohio speech, All I think about is jobs, Obama agenda

The same day that Obama spun his web of deceit in a speech in Ohio, it was announced that unemployment in NC reached a record high of 11.2 percent. Today we have a breakdown of the 100 counties in NC.

Listen to these speech exerpts and decide if Obama’s rhetoric matches reality.

Record unemployment in NC report from the News Record.

“N.C. unemployment rate hits historic high”

“North Carolina’s unemployment rate hit a historic high of 11.2 percent in December as the tally of jobs lost by the state’s workers since the recession started two years ago neared 250,000.

December’s jobless rate of 11.2 percent rose from 10.8 percent in November, the Employment Security Commission said Friday.

“That’s a pretty significant jump in the unemployment rate when we’ve been into the recovery this long,” said Harry Davis, the chief economist for the North Carolina Bankers Association and an Appalachian State University banking professor.”

“Since the U.S. fell into recession in Dec. 2007, North Carolina has lost 248,000 nonfarm jobs. Manufacturers have slashed 95,500 workers since that time, while construction companies cut 65,800.

Those two sectors shed 2,100 positions in December, but the month’s biggest loser was the 2,600 jobs cut by leisure and hospitality services like hotels and entertainment companies.

That’s no surprise with consumers worried about their incomes cutting back on luxuries, Davis said. More losses at leisure companies can be expected this year, he said.”

Read more:

http://www.news-record.com/content/2010/01/22/article/nc_unemployment_rate_up_in_dec

From News 14 today, January 29, 2010.

“Unemployment climbs again in 86 N.C. counties”

“RALEIGH – State officials have released the latest county-by-county unemployment numbers, showing that unemployment rates increased in 86 of North Carolina’s 100 counties in December.”

“Other Stats

• Highest unemployment: Graham County at 17.6 percent
• Lowest unemployment: Orange County at 6.2 percent
• Biggest increase: Hyde County increases 3.4 percent to 12.2 percent
• Biggest decrease: Perquimans County decreases 0.5 percent to 9.9 percent
• Current state unemployment: 11.2 percent”

Read more:

http://news14.com/charlotte-news-104-content/top_stories/621285/unemployment-climbs-again-in-86-n-c–counties