Category Archives: Money Markets

May payroll numbers worse than forecast, Employers in the US hired fewer workers in May, Payrolls rose by 431000, Economists projected a 536000, Stock futures drop

May payroll numbers worse than forecast, Employers in the US hired fewer workers

From Bloomberg June 4, 2010.

“Employers in the U.S. hired fewer workers in May than forecast and Americans dropped out of the labor force, showing a lack of confidence in the recovery that may lead to slower economic growth.

Payrolls rose by 431,000 last month, including a 411,000 jump in government hiring of temporary workers for the 2010 census, Labor Department figures in Washington showed today. Economists projected a 536,000 gain, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. Private payrolls rose a less-than-forecast 41,000. The jobless rate fell to 9.7 percent.

Staff reductions at companies such as Hewlett-Packard Co. and Citigroup Inc. indicate a slowing in the labor market that threatens to restrain consumer spending, the biggest part of the economy. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said yesterday that unemployment was exacting a heavy toll, showing why economists forecast interest rates will remain low.

“It’s going to be a long haul,” Michael Englund, chief economist at Action Economics LLC in Boulder, Colorado, said before the report. “We really aren’t adding many jobs. We’ve lost some momentum in the economy and final sales clearly aren’t enough to generate job growth.”

Stock-index futures fell and Treasury securities rose after the report. The contract on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 2.1 percent to 1,080 at 8:38 a.m. in New York. The 10- year Treasury note rose, pushing down the yield to 3.27 percent from 3.37 percent late yesterday.”

“Payrolls estimates in the Bloomberg survey of 82 economists ranged from 220,000 to 750,000 after a gain of 290,000 jobs in April. Economists surveyed also forecast the jobless rate fell to 9.8 percent last month from 9.9 percent in April. Unemployment reached a 26-year high of 10.1 percent in October. The May figures showed the labor force shrank 322,000.

Federal hiring of temporary workers to conduct the decennial population count probably peaked last month, economists said.

The unwinding of census employment may keep distorting the payroll figures for months as the government dismisses workers when the count is completed. For that reason, economists say private payrolls, which exclude government jobs, will be a better gauge of the state of the labor market for much of 2010.”

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Jobless claims May 27, 2010, Labor Department report 8:30, Claims drop?, College graduates, College students, Real unemployment number, Open thread discussion

Jobless claims May 27, 2010, Labor Department report 8:30

The Jobless Claims Reports for the week will be released by the US Department of Labor today, May 27, 2010 at 8:30. Will the report show a drop this week instead of another increase like last week’s 25, 000? What is the real unemployment rate? It is certainly higher than 9.9%. Hundreds of thousands of high school and college graduates are entering the job market. What impact will that have?  Here is a possible reflection of the new figures.

From Real Clear Markets.

“The number of people filing new claims for unemployment benefits likely fell last week.

Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect new applications for unemployment benefits will show a drop of 16,000 to a seasonally adjusted total of 455,000. The Labor Department will issue the report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

New claims had risen unexpectedly by 25,000 the previous week, the biggest increase in three months and the first rise in five weeks. It pushed the claims level to 471,000.

The surge was seen as further evidence of how volatile the job market remains, even as the economy grows.”

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US economy slowdown, Economy cooling, Financial markets, Corporate forecasts, Soft retail sales, Rise in jobless claims

US economy slowdown, Economy cooling, Financial markets, Corporate forecasts

From Daily Finance May 22, 2010.

“Forget Europe: Signs of a Slowdown in the U.S.”
“Financial markets around the world are fixated on Europe as it grapples with its debt woes. Though probably overdone, investor paranoia is understandable. The fallout for the global economy would be massive if things spiraled out of control, unlikely as that may seem for the moment.

While potentially catastrophic developments overseas may be captivating, investors would do well to stay focused on more subtle developments in the U.S. Much of Wall Street remains bullish on the prospects of an economic recovery, but some signs suggest that a slowdown may be materializing nonetheless.

Watch Corporate Guidance and Economic Indicators

Hosted software provider (CRM) is the latest company to report strong results for the first quarter but provide a forecast that couldn’t live up to Wall Street’s expectations. On Thursday, the company said it expected earnings per share of between $1.13 and $1.15 for the full year. That was well below the $1.28 analysts had forecast, and shares tumbled in trading after hours.

The results from mirror those of networking giant Cisco (CSCO) last week. While Cisco delivered a strong first quarter, shares were initially hammered based on a lackluster outlook for the rest of the year. Hardware giant Dell (DELL) also came under fire as concerns about its ability to maintain profits grew despite solid results for the first quarter.

A slew of retailers including Lowe’s (LOW), Home Depot (HD) and Wal-Mart (WMT) have also provided skimpy guidance for the rest of the year. And while companies may well be trying to game Wall Street by setting the bar low only to dazzle later, recent economic data suggests that the economy could also be slowing after a sharp rebound in demand from depressed lows.

A set of closely watched indicators released Thursday by the Conference Board showed that the economy may be cooling as it heads into the second half of the year. Those findings echo leading indicators monitored by the Economic Cycle Research Institute, which noted that “the pace of improvement in the overall economy is set to slacken in the months ahead” as measures fell to a 40-week low.

Soft retail sales and a sudden rise in jobless claims have contributed to the darkening picture.”

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Stocks dive, Futures dive, Jobless claims up, Unemployment Debt Foreign Economies, This ain’t rocket science

Stocks dive, Futures dive, Jobless claims up, Unemployment Debt Foreign Economies

From the Chicago Tribune May 20, 2010.

“Stocks take hard tumble
376-point drop puts major indexes at a loss for year”

“The stock market had its worst day in more than year Thursday, with the Dow industrials tumbling more than 376 points, as fear intensified that a debt crisis in Europe could jeopardize the global economic recovery.

The sell-off put the major U.S. stock indexes, including the Dow, in the red for the year and down more than 10 percent in less than four weeks, the market’s sharpest retreat since March 2009, when prices bottomed at 12-year lows.

Analysts said there was no dramatic news to explain the day’s declines, including the largest one-day point drop in the Dow since February 2009. And despite the fiscal problems of Greece and other European countries, most forecasters predict the U.S. economy will continue the moderate recovery it began last year.

But mixed signals coming from across the Atlantic about the ability and willingness of leaders there to manage the crisis has made U.S. investors anxious.

As a result, volatility in the stock market has increased sharply of late. Thursday’s drop was the 13th time in the last 18 sessions that the Dow has had a triple-digit move.”

“The crash appears to have damaged the psyche of some individual investors just as they were beginning to regain confidence in stocks after the deep bear market of 2007-09.

“People are more nervous than they would have been, say, three years ago, with this sort of decline because they’re picturing what they went through in 2008,” said Mark Wilson, a financial planner at the Tarbox Group. “The basic question is: ‘Are we going right back to where we started from? Should we be getting out now in anticipation of going back to those 2008 levels?'”

Wilson said he was cautioning clients not to overreact, pointing out that 10 percent declines, known as corrections, that merely interrupt longer bull markets are normal.

Nonetheless, in the week that began the day of the crash, individual investors pulled $14 billion from mutual funds, the first such net withdrawal since March 2009.”

“The outlook was not helped by two discouraging pieces of news about the American economy.

The Labor Department said initial claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose 25,000 last week, to 471,000. Meanwhile, The Conference Board, a private research group, reported its index of leading economic indicators fell 0.1 percent in April, its first decline since March 2009.”

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Bull Market?

I don’t see it.
Glenn Beck has done a good job of covering the US debt situation, our jeopardy of losing our borrowing rating,  out of control spending and the impact it is having on our economy and future generations.

What is happening in the stock market is no mystery. Out of control government spending, anti business, anti jobs growth policies are exacerbating an already gloomy economy and job market. Overlay that with financial crisis in Greece, Europe and pessimism in China and you have a recipe for a stock market retreat.

I do  not have a crystal ball. However, the November elections can do more than saving this country from ruin. Removing many jackasses will restore confidence in financial markets and alllow Congress to control spending and create jobs.

Let’s roll.

Budget deficit widens, Largest April deficit ever, $82.7 billion shortfall, Record 19th straight monthly shortfall, Risk of higher interest rates

Budget deficit widens, Largest April deficit ever, $82.7 billion shortfall

From Bloomberg, May 12, 2010.

“Budget Deficit in U.S. Widened to $82.7 Billion in April”

“The U.S. reported a budget deficit for April, the second such shortfall since 1983 for the month that typically sees an increase in income tax payments.

The excess of spending over revenue rose to $82.7 billion last month compared with a $20.9 billion gap in April 2009, the Treasury Department said today in Washington. It was the largest April deficit ever and exceeded the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey.

April marked a record 19th straight monthly shortfall, highlighting the challenges facing the Obama administration. Deterioration in the government’s balance sheet in coming years raises the risk of higher interest rates even as an improving economy helps generate taxable income.

“We’re not going to see the deficit come down until economy gets healthier,” Gary Thayer, chief macro strategist at Wells Fargo Advisors LLC in St. Louis, said before the report. “We still have some important problems with the economy. There’s still a tendency by policy makers and lawmakers to address the problem with additional spending.”

The government’s April budget deficit compares with a median forecast of $57.9 billion, according to a Bloomberg survey of 30 economists. Projections ranged from deficits of $20 billion to $90 billion.”

“Revenue Declines

Revenue and other income fell 7.9 percent to $245.3 billion in April from $266.2 billion the same month last year, the Treasury said.”

“Spending for the entire government for April jumped 14.2 percent from the same month a year earlier to $328 billion.”
“The Obama administration forecasts a $1.6 trillion budget deficit in the current fiscal year that began Oct. 1. President Barack Obama’s debt commission met April 27, the first of a series of meetings aimed at producing a plan to reduce the deficit.

Administration officials and Democrats in Congress are looking to the commission for recommendations on reducing the federal debt, which is currently projected to reach 90 percent of the economy by 2020. Interest payments are forecast to quadruple to more than $900 billion annually by that year.”

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Jobless claims jump to 496,000, February 25, 2010, new claims for unemployment benefits, four week average rose, 8.4 million jobs lost, 4.6 million continuing claims, North Carolina had biggest increase

Jobless claims jump to 496,000, February 25, 2010

From Fox News,  February 25, 2010.

“New Jobless Claims Jumped to 496,000 as Heavy Snow Caused Rise in Layoffs”

“The number of new claims for unemployment benefits jumped unexpectedly last week as heavy snows caused layoffs to rise.”

“The department said Thursday that first-time claims for unemployment insurance rose by 22,000 to a seasonally adjusted 496,000. Wall Street analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expected a drop to 455,000.”

“The four-week average has risen by about 30,000 in the past month, raising concerns that job cuts are continuing. Initial claims had fallen sharply over the summer and fall but the improvement has stalled since the year began.

The economy has grown for six months but is not yet spurring new hiring. Many economists point out that the current recovery is weak compared to the aftermath of previous deep recessions.

The Labor Department said earlier this month that while the unemployment rate fell to 9.7 percent from 10 percent, employers still cut 20,000 jobs. The economy has lost 8.4 million jobs since the recession began.”

“Among the states, North Carolina had biggest increase in claims, with 5,897, which it attributed to layoffs in the construction, furniture and mining industries. Pennsylvania and Kentucky also reported large increases. The state data lags initial claims by one week.”

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February 18 2010, Jobless Claims rise, Inflation jumps, Economy Wobbles, New applications unemployment insurance surged last week, unemployment benefits increased 31,000, producer prices increased sharply in January

February 18 2010, Jobless Claims rise

From, february 18, 2010.

“Jobless Claims, Inflation Jump as Economy Wobbles”

“The number of U.S. workers filing new applications for unemployment insurance unexpectedly surged last week, while producer prices increased sharply in January, raising potential hurdles for the economic recovery.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 31,000 to 473,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday. That compared to market expectations for 430,000.
Another report from the department showed prices paid at the farm and factory gate rose a faster than expected 1.4 percent from December after a 0.4 percent gain in December, as higher gasoline prices and unusually cold temperatures helped boost energy costs.
“When you have PPI moving up and still no progress in the jobs situation, that doesn’t bode well for continued improvement in equity prices,” said Alan Lancz, president at Alan B. Lancz & Associates in Toledo, Ohio.”

“Another report from the department showed prices paid at the farm and factory gate rose a faster than expected 1.4 percent from December after a 0.4 percent gain in December, as higher gasoline prices and unusually cold temperatures helped boost energy costs.
“When you have PPI moving up and still no progress in the jobs situation, that doesn’t bode well for continued improvement in equity prices,” said Alan Lancz, president at Alan B. Lancz & Associates in Toledo, Ohio.”

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