Janet Yellen employment concerns, NY Times protects Obama, Chicago Suntimes Philadelphia Fed and Duke Fuqua School of Business blame Obamacare for unemployment and part time jobs
“Over the last six months, of the net job creation, 97 percent of that is part-time work,”…Keith Hall, former BLS chief
“Nearly half of U.S. companies are reluctant to hire full-time employees because of the ACA. One in five firms indicates they are likely to hire fewer employees, and another one in 10 may lay off current employees in response to the law.
Other firms will shift toward part-time workers. More than 40 percent of CFOs say their companies will consider switching some jobs to less than 30 hours per week or targeting part-time workers for future employment.”…Duke University Fuqua School of Business December 11, 2013
“Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.”…George Orwell, “1984″
Janet Yellen, despite the fact she has tap danced around the real employment problems in this county, today in Jackson Hole did address some of the problems with employment in this country.
“Consider first the behavior of the labor force participation rate, which has declined substantially since the end of the recession even as the unemployment rate has fallen. As a consequence, the employment-to-population ratio has increased far less over the past several years than the unemployment rate alone would indicate, based on past experience. For policymakers, the key question is: What portion of the decline in labor force participation reflects structural shifts and what portion reflects cyclical weakness in the labor market? If the cyclical component is abnormally large, relative to the unemployment rate, then it might be seen as an additional contributor to labor market slack.
Labor force participation peaked in early 2000, so its decline began well before the Great Recession. A portion of that decline clearly relates to the aging of the baby boom generation. But the pace of decline accelerated with the recession. As an accounting matter, the drop in the participation rate since 2008 can be attributed to increases in four factors: retirement, disability, school enrollment, and other reasons, including worker discouragement.8 Of these, greater worker discouragement is most directly the result of a weak labor market, so we could reasonably expect further increases in labor demand to pull a sizable share of discouraged workers back into the workforce.”
The NY Times, as it often has, reports on the Yellen speech and quotes one of the most ludicrous papers as an excuse for the lack of employment.
I was just going to pull up the NY Times Yellen article from this afternoon and got this message:
“The requested URL “http://www.nytimes.com/” cannot be found or is not available. Please check the spelling or try again later.”
I will try again later.
*** Update 7:03 PM article back up ***
“Ms. Yellen’s optimism that Fed policy can increase employment and wages is also challenged by a growing body of economic literature purporting to show that the decline of employment is caused largely by factors that predate the recession, and that cannot be addressed by continuing to hold down interest rates.
The economists Stephen J. Davis, of the University of Chicago, and John Haltiwanger, of the University of Maryland, argued in a paper presented Friday at the conference that employment had declined because the labor market has stagnated in recent decades. Fewer people are leaving or losing jobs, and fewer are taking new ones.
“These results,” they wrote, “suggest the U.S. economy faced serious impediments to high employment rates well before the Great Recession, and that sustained high employment is unlikely to return without restoring labor market fluidity.”
Read the rest of the article.
You will be amazed.
From the Duke University Fuqua School of Business, December 11, 2013.
DUKE UNIVERSITY NEWS
Duke University Office of News & Communications
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Wednesday, Dec. 11, 2013
CONTACTS: Kevin Anselmo (Duke’s Fuqua School of Business)
David W. Owens (CFO Magazine)
CFO SURVEY: AFFORDABLE CARE ACT COULD CURTAIL HIRING
Note to editors: For additional comment, see contact information at the end of this release.
Watch professor John Graham discuss the results (or use this link
http://youtu.be/F4oj8d5F9Jo). You may also post this video on your website. Names of CFOs who took part in the survey and agreed to speak with media are available by request.
DURHAM, N.C. — A significant percentage of U.S. chief financial officers indicate that because of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), they may reduce employment growth at their firms and shift toward part-time workers.
A majority of finance chiefs also believe the full Social Security retirement age should be raised to help close the budget shortfall.
Despite these issues, underlying economic conditions are expected to improve in 2014 and, except in Europe, corporate charitable giving remains strong
These are some of the findings from the latest Duke University/CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook Survey, which concluded Dec. 5. The survey has been conducted for 71 consecutive quarters and spans the globe, making it the world’s longest running and most comprehensive research on senior finance executives. Presented results are for U.S. firms unless otherwise noted.
EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS OF THE AFFORDABLE CARE ACT
Nearly half of U.S. companies are reluctant to hire full-time employees because of the ACA.
One in five firms indicates they are likely to hire fewer employees, and another one in 10 may lay off current employees in response to the law.
Other firms will shift toward part-time workers. More than 40 percent of CFOs say their companies will consider switching some jobs to less than 30 hours per week or targeting part-time workers for future employment.”
From the Philadelphia Fed August 2014.
“In special questions this month, firms were asked qualitative questions about the effects of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and how, if at all, they are making changes to their employment and compensation, including benefits (see Special Questions). Over 18 percent of the firms indicated that the number of workers they employ was lower because of the ACA; 3 percent indicated higher levels. The same percentage (18 percent) indicated that the proportion of part-time workers had increased. Regarding health insurance benefit coverage, 41 percent said their coverage was unchanged, but 52 percent indicated modifications to their offerings. Among those modifying their health insurance coverage, higher deductibles (91 percent), higher worker contributed premiums (88 percent), and higher out-of-pocket maximums (77 percent) were the most cited changes.”
From the Chicago SunTimes August 21, 2014.
“Thanks a lot, Obama.
Add the Affordable Care Act – or, specifically, the big-business Cubs’ response to it – to the causes behind Tuesday night’s tarp fiasco and rare successful protest by the San Francisco Giants.
The staffing issues that hamstrung the grounds crew Tuesday during a mad dash with the tarp under a sudden rainstorm were created in part by a wide-ranging reorganization last winter of game-day personnel, job descriptions and work limits designed to keep the seasonal workers – including much of the grounds crew – under 130 hours per month, according to numerous sources with direct knowledge.
That’s the full-time worker definition under “Obamacare,” which requires employer-provided healthcare benefits for “big businesses” such as a major league team.”