Category Archives: Federal Reserve

Jan Hatzius Goldman “Fed Should Think About Easing”, Recent events have largely sealed the case against a rate hike next week, We expect modest downward revisions to GDP growth in 2016 and 2017 in light of tighter financial conditions

Jan Hatzius Goldman “Fed Should Think About Easing”, Recent events have largely sealed the case against a rate hike next week, We expect modest downward revisions to GDP growth in 2016 and 2017 in light of tighter financial conditions

“All of the employment gains among women since the recession hit in December 2007 have been taken by foreigners, even at a time when the numbers of U.S.-born women surged more than 600,000, according to new federal statistics.”…Washington Examiner August 7, 2015

“There’s no other way to say this. The official unemployment rate, which cruelly overlooks the suffering of the long-term and often permanently unemployed as well as the depressingly underemployed, amounts to a Big Lie.”…Gallup CEO Jim Clifton 

“We are being lied to on a scale unimaginable by George Orwell.”…Citizen Wells

 

 

Several months ago when I engaged in an email debate with Jan Hatzius of Goldman regarding the employment situation and impact of baby boomers, I came to the conclusion that he and other economists were too entrenched in the theoretical realm of economies to see the reality of the economy and employment in the US.

Are Jan Hatzius and Goldman finally facing a reality check on the real condition of the economy?

From Zero Hedge September 12, 2015.

“Is Yellen About To Shock Everyone: Goldman Says The “Fed Should Think About Easing””

“What a difference a little over a year makes.

Back in January 2014, just after the Fed announced the tapering of QE (because, you know, the “date-dependent” Fed would never be tapering if the economy wasn’t improving, right?) the propaganda machine went into overdrive, with Wall Street’s pet economist, not to mention the NY Fed’s key “outside advisor”, Goldman Jan Hatzius preaching that the long awaited recovery had finally arrived.

This is how the tabloid pseudo-finance website Business Insider characterized his call at the time: “Goldman’s top economist, Jan Hatzius, just said the words we’ve been wanting to hear for five years. He believes the economy is now growing at an above-trend pace.””

“For what it was worth, we disagreed with Hatzius, noting that this would simply be the second time in five years Goldman has jumped the “recovery” shark after its dramatic reversal in December 2010 when as QE 2 was ending, Goldman once again sought to boost wholesale confidence by going fundamentally bullish and saying “This outlook represents a fundamental shift in the thinking that has
governed our forecast for at least the last five years.”

Fast forward a little over a year when we learn that Goldman was once again wrong (for what it’s worth, naturally Business Insider was too).

First it was in April of 2015 – some 16 months after his “bold” prediction – that the same “above trend growth”-forecasting Hatzius said we “do not have much confidence in the inflation outlook and believe that the right policy would be to put hikes on hold for now.”

But… what happened to above trend growth?

Then in the first week of June, Hatzius once again hedged saying “Our forecast remains that the Fed policy committee will hike rates at the September meeting, but …this remains a close call. There is a strong risk management case for delaying liftoff.” In other words, the market determines Fed policy, not the economy, despite the reflexive lies to the opposite.

Then just two weeks later, on June 18, Hatzius having long given up on his “above trend growth” forecast changed his tune again, and now said he expected a December rate hike instead.

“In large part this reflects the fact that seven FOMC participants are now projecting zero or one rate hike this year, a group that we believe includes Fed Chair Janet Yellen…. We had viewed a clear signal for a September hike at the June meeting as close to a necessary condition for the FOMC to actually hike in September, because we did not believe that the FOMC would want to surprise markets on the hawkish side when they raise the funds rate.”

Of course, if the economy had grown at an “above trend pace” since his January 2014 call, the Fed would have to be at 1% or higher by now.

Just to make sure nobody is surprised next week when Yellen does not hike and unleashes a massive relief rally, Hatzius added that a September rate hike announcement this Thursday “shouldn’t be close”, and as we showed previously, unveiled 7 reasons why. Amazing how Goldman’s narrative changes with every month.

And then, the humiliation was complete last night when the same Jan Hatzius, having long-forgotten his January 2014 prediction, in a note previewing the US economy in “September and Beyond” had this to say:

In our view, the recent events have largely sealed the case against a rate hike next week. Fed officials have made clear that “data dependent” policy refers to incoming economic news as well as factors that could impinge on the outlook—including changes in financial conditions…. The news on wage and price inflation, however, has been softer than generally expected a few months ago…. most of the inflation shortfall relative to the Fed’s 2% target is due to more persistent factors, including continued labor market slack.

We expect modest downward revisions to GDP growth in 2016 and 2017 in light of tighter financial conditions.
Hm… maybe Jan meant below-trend growth?

And here we get to the punchline, because Goldman which originally expected a September rate hike, then pushed it to December in June, is now fairly confident that there may not be a 2015 rate hike at all!”

Read more:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-12/yellen-about-shock-everyone-goldman-says-fed-should-think-about-easing

As reported at Citizen Wells September 4, 2015, white employment is down 132,000 since January 2015.

https://citizenwells.com/2015/09/04/us-labor-dept-employment-charts-reveal-no-jobs-recovery-for-native-born-americans-september-4-2015-low-wage-part-time-jobs-going-to-immigrants-business-insider-warning-from-2011-economic-flows-p/

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Janet Yellen jobs lies, Obama lies, Media lies, Yellen employment growth strong and touts stated unemployment rate, Gallup CEO Jim Clifton correct, Dictionary states lie is anything that gives or is meant to give a false impression

Janet Yellen jobs lies, Obama lies, Media lies, Yellen employment growth strong and touts stated unemployment rate, Gallup CEO Jim Clifton correct, Dictionary states lie is anything that gives or is meant to give a false impression

“There’s no other way to say this. The official unemployment rate, which cruelly overlooks the suffering of the long-term and often permanently unemployed as well as the depressingly underemployed, amounts to a Big Lie.”…Gallup CEO Jim Clifton 

“In February 2015 there were 43,000 fewer white Americans employed, 354,000 more not in the labor force, 96,000 more employed and we added 295,000 jobs? Was Common Core math used?”…Citizen Wells

“Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.”…George Orwell, “1984″

 

 

Two people with vast knowledge of US employment have made statements in the past several years.

Keith Hall ran the Bureau of Labor Statistics from 2008 to 2012.

From the Atlanta Journal Constitution August 5, 2013.

“The July government employment report released Friday showed the job market treading water.”And a closer look at one of the two measures the Labor Department uses to gauge employment suggests that part-time work accounted for almost all the job growth that’s been reported over the past six months. …” ‘Over the last six months, of the net job creation, 97 percent of that is part-time work,’ said Keith Hall, a senior researcher at George Mason University’s Mercatus Center. ‘That is really remarkable.’”

Read more:

http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/kyle-wingfield/2013/aug/05/obamacare-economy-35-part-time-jobs-every-new-full/

Jim Clifton is the CEO of Gallup.

From Gallup February 3, 2015.

“The Big Lie: 5.6% Unemployment”

“Here’s something that many Americans — including some of the smartest and most educated among us — don’t know: The official unemployment rate, as reported by the U.S. Department of Labor, is extremely misleading.

Right now, we’re hearing much celebrating from the media, the White House and Wall Street about how unemployment is “down” to 5.6%. The cheerleading for this number is deafening. The media loves a comeback story, the White House wants to score political points and Wall Street would like you to stay in the market.

None of them will tell you this: If you, a family member or anyone is unemployed and has subsequently given up on finding a job — if you are so hopelessly out of work that you’ve stopped looking over the past four weeks — the Department of Labor doesn’t count you as unemployed. That’s right. While you are as unemployed as one can possibly be, and tragically may never find work again, you are not counted in the figure we see relentlessly in the news — currently 5.6%. Right now, as many as 30 million Americans are either out of work or severely underemployed. Trust me, the vast majority of them aren’t throwing parties to toast “falling” unemployment.

There’s another reason why the official rate is misleading. Say you’re an out-of-work engineer or healthcare worker or construction worker or retail manager: If you perform a minimum of one hour of work in a week and are paid at least $20 — maybe someone pays you to mow their lawn — you’re not officially counted as unemployed in the much-reported 5.6%. Few Americans know this.

Yet another figure of importance that doesn’t get much press: those working part time but wanting full-time work. If you have a degree in chemistry or math and are working 10 hours part time because it is all you can find — in other words, you are severely underemployed — the government doesn’t count you in the 5.6%. Few Americans know this.

There’s no other way to say this. The official unemployment rate, which cruelly overlooks the suffering of the long-term and often permanently unemployed as well as the depressingly underemployed, amounts to a Big Lie.

And it’s a lie that has consequences, because the great American dream is to have a good job, and in recent years, America has failed to deliver that dream more than it has at any time in recent memory. A good job is an individual’s primary identity, their very self-worth, their dignity — it establishes the relationship they have with their friends, community and country. When we fail to deliver a good job that fits a citizen’s talents, training and experience, we are failing the great American dream.”

Read more:

http://www.gallup.com/opinion/chairman/181469/big-lie-unemployment.aspx

Jim Clifton was attacked and ridiculed.

But Clifton was correct.

Websters New World College Dictionary

“The official dictionary of the Associated Press”
Lie definition (noun)
“anything that gives or is meant to give a false impression.”
So why does Janet Yellen, Obama the liar in chief and the media continue to tout the “low” unemployment rate.

It is a big lie!!!

Janet Yellen in her FOMC presentation repeatedly referred to the “low” unemployment rate in the context of strong employment growth as well as the number of “jobs” being added.

“We have seen continued progress toward our objective of maximum employment. The pace of employment growth has remained strong, with job gains averaging nearly 290,000 per month over the past three months. The unemployment rate was 5.5 percent in February; that’s three-tenths lower than the latest reading available at the time of our December meeting.”

http://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20150318.pdf

Obama has a long well documented tradition of lying.

The mainstream media is controlled by Big Brother Obama.

So why is Yellen lying?

Let’s examine US employment in the short term and over Obama’s 6 year tenure.

All of this data can be found at the US Labor Dept. BLS site.

The latest report was for February 2015.

The Labor Dept. reported 295,000 jobs added.

However, there was only a 96,000  gain in employment.

And Whites had 43,000  fewer employments!

There were 354,000 more people not in the labor force!

There were 180,000 more people not in the labor force who want a job now!

Does Yellen consider this strong employment growth?

That does not even cover new entrants into the labor force.

Remember, there are approx. 4 million people turning 16 each year in the US. This is from people living here and does not count illegals.

From Obama’s first 6 years.

5,205,000 full time employments were lost during the first year of Obama’s occupation of the White House from January 2009 to January 2010?

2.8 million white Americans fewer were employed during Obama’s first year.

During Obama’s term, from January 2009 to now, 75 percent of the employment went to Hispanics/Latinos.

Read more:

https://citizenwells.wordpress.com/2015/03/18/janet-yellen-fomc-press-conference-march-18-2015-pace-of-employment-growth-has-remained-strong-continued-progress-toward-maximum-employment-of-whom-illegal-aliens-job-gains-averaging-nearly-290k/

What about people losing their job?

Averaging 300,000 initial claims each week seems to be a victory to those in government and the media.

From Zero Hedge March 19, 2015.

“After some ‘stability’ in the last few weeks, initial jobless claims in the major shale states has started to rise again with Texas the most impacted for now. Overall initial jobless claims rose very modestly to 291k, but leaves the 4-week average above 300k for the 2nd week in a row – the first time in over 6 months.”

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-19/initial-claims-hold-worst-levels-6-months-shale-state-joblessness-re-surges

I have been concerned for some time that we are not getting the full impact of these numbers.

From the BLS.

Unemployment insurance (UI) programs are administered at the state level and provide assistance to jobless people who are looking for work. Statistics on the insured unemployed in the United States are collected as a by-product of state UI programs. Workers who lose their jobs may file applications to determine if they are eligible for UI assistance. These applications are referred to as “initial claims.” Claimants who meet the eligibility requirements must file “continuing claims” for each week that they seek benefits.

Data on initial and continuing UI claims are maintained by the Employment and Training Administration, an agency of the U.S. Department of Labor, and are available on the Internet at http://workforcesecurity.doleta.gov/unemploy/claims.asp.

While the UI claims data provide useful information, they are not used to measure total unemployment because they exclude several important groups. To begin with, not all workers are covered by UI programs. For example, self-employed workers, unpaid family workers, workers in certain not-for-profit organizations, and several other small (primarily seasonal) worker categories are not covered.

In addition, the insured unemployed exclude the following:

  1. Unemployed workers who have exhausted their benefits.
  2. Unemployed workers who have not yet earned benefit rights (such as new entrants or reentrants to the labor force).
  3. Disqualified workers whose unemployment is considered to have resulted from their own actions rather than from economic conditions; for example, a worker fired for misconduct on the job.
  4. Otherwise eligible unemployed persons who do not file for benefits.

Because of these and other limitations, statistics on insured unemployment cannot be used as a measure of total unemployment in the United States. Indeed, over the past decade, only about one-third of the total unemployed, on average, received regular UI benefits.”

http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm

The number of people who have lost jobs and in some cases fallen by the wayside may be much higher than we thought.

I hope to report more on this soon.

I know that the mainstream media is not reporting this.

Are Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, Glenn Beck or your favorite talk radio host reporting these facts?

Let me know.

 

 

 

 

 

Janet Yellen FOMC press conference March 18, 2015, Pace of employment growth has remained strong, Continued progress toward maximum employment, Of whom illegal aliens?, Job gains averaging nearly 290k per month, Slack in labor market continues to diminish, OMG what the hell is wrong with Yellen?

Janet Yellen FOMC press conference March 18, 2015, Pace of employment growth has remained strong, Continued progress toward maximum employment, Of whom illegal aliens?, Job gains averaging nearly 290k per month, Slack in labor market continues to diminish, OMG what the hell is wrong with Yellen?

“Why does Janet Yellen keep misrepresenting the jobs situation and quoting the big lie of the unemployment rate?”…Citizen Wells 

“In February 2015 there were 43,000 fewer white Americans employed, 354,000 more not in the labor force, 96,000 more employed and we added 295,000 jobs? Was Common Core math used?”…Citizen Wells

“Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.”…George Orwell, “1984″

 

Jenet Yellen is answering questions as I write this and read the

Transcript of Chair Yellen’s FOMC Press Conference Opening Statement March 18, 2015.

“We have seen continued progress toward our objective of maximum employment. The pace of employment growth has remained strong, with job gains averaging nearly 290,000 per month over the past three months. The unemployment rate was 5.5 percent in February; that’s three-tenths lower than the latest reading available at the time of our December meeting. Broader measures of job market conditions—such as those counting individuals who want and are available to work but have not actively searched recently and people who are working part time but would rather work full time—have shown similar improvement. As we noted in our statement, slack in the labor market continues to diminish. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate—the percentage of working-age Americans either working or seeking work—is lower than most estimates of its trend and wage growth remains sluggish, suggesting that some cyclical weakness persists. So considerable progress clearly has been achieved, but room for further improvement in the labor market continues.

We continue to expect sufficient underlying strength in economic growth to support ongoing improvement in the labor market. After averaging about 2-1/2 percent over 2014, growth of real gross domestic product appears to have slowed in the first quarter of this year, in part reflecting a moderation in household spending. In addition, the recovery in the housing sector remains subdued and export growth looks to have weakened. Looking ahead, however, the Committee continues to expect a moderate pace of GDP growth, with robust job gains and lower energy prices supporting household spending.”

“This assessment of the outlook is reflected in the individual economic projections submitted for this meeting by the FOMC participants. As always, each participant’s projections are conditioned on his or her own view of appropriate monetary policy. The unemployment rate projections over the next few years and in the longer run are generally a bit lower than the December projections. At the end of this year, the central tendency for the unemployment rate stands at 5.0 to 5.2 percent, in line with participants’ estimates of the longer-run normal unemployment rate. Committee participants generally see the unemployment rate declining a little further over the course of 2016 and 2017.”

http://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20150318.pdf

There is only one explanation for Janet Yellen’s irresponsible statements about the employment situation in the US.

She is either on drugs or being scripted by the Obama camp.

She can’t be that stupid.

She keeps quoting the unemployment rate, in fact I just heard her refer to it.

Jim Clifton, the CEO of Gallup calls it a lie!

It is!!!

And her touting the recent job gains.

The US Labor Dept. BLS reported 295,000 job gains for February 2015.

It also reported that there were only 96,000 more employments and in fact 43,000 fewer white employments.

Zero Hedge and Citizen Wells are questioning these Orwellian claims.

From Citizen Wells March 18, 2015.

Wall Street and main street had better be worried about the real state of the economy and the jobs crisis in this country.

Yesterday Zero Hedge questioned the monthly jobs data from the US Labor Dept. BLS.

“Something Strange Is Going On With Nonfarm Payrolls”

“Falling wages aside (a critical topic as it singlehandedly refutes the Fed’s bedrock thesis of no slack in a labor force in which there are 93 million Americans who no longer participate in the job market) going back to the original topic of which economic factors are prompting the Fed to assume there is an economic recovery, without exaggeration, all alone.

Is there nothing else that can validate the Fed’s rate hike hypothesis? Well… no.

Below is a selection of the economic data points that have missed expectations in just the past month.

MISSES

  1. Personal Spending
  2. Construction Spending
  3. ISM New York
  4. Factory Orders
  5. Ward’s Domestic Vehicle Sales
  6. ADP Employment
  7. Challenger Job Cuts
  8. Initial Jobless Claims
  9. Nonfarm Productivity
  10. Trade Balance
  11. Unemployment Rate
  12. Labor Market Conditions Index
  13. NFIB Small Business Optimism
  14. Wholesale Inventories
  15. Wholesale Sales
  16. IBD Economic Optimism
  17. Mortgage Apps
  18. Retail Sales
  19. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
  20. Business Inventories
  21. UMich Consumer Sentiment
  22. Empire Manufacturing
  23. NAHB Homebuilder Confidence
  24. Housing Starts
  25. Building Permits
  26. PPI
  27. Industrial Production
  28. Capacity Utilization
  29. Manufacturing Production
  30. Dallas Fed
  31. Chicago Fed NAI
  32. Existing Home Sales
  33. Consumer Confidence
  34. Richmond Fed
  35. Personal Consumption
  36. ISM Milwaukee
  37. Chicago PMI
  38. Pending Home Sales
  39. Personal Income
  40. Personal Spending
  41. Construction Spending
  42. ISM Manufacturing
  43. Atlanta Fed GDPNow

So a pattern emerges: we have an economy in which jobs and only jobs are acting as if there is a strong recovery, while everything else is sliding, disappointing economists, and in fact hinting at another contraction (whatever you do, don’t look at the Fed’s internal model of Q1 GDP).

To be sure, economists these days are better known as weathermen, and so they are quick to blame every economic disappointment on the weather. Because, you see, they were unaware it was snowing outside when they provided their forecasts about the future, a future which should be impacted by the snowfall that day, and which they promptly scapegoat as the reason for their cluelessness. Yet one wonders: why didn’t the harsh snow (in the winter) pound February jobs as well? Recall last year’s payroll disappointments were immediately blamed on the weather which was just as “harsh” as this year. Why the difference?

And yet, today this rising “anomaly” between Nonfarm Payolls “data” and everything else, hit a crescendo, and some – such as Jim Bianco – have had it with the lies anomalies, which prompted him to ask the following:

Why Are Construction Jobs and Housing Starts Telling Different Stories? Is The Problem Non-Farm Payrolls

JobsHousingStarts

“Economists seem to start with the premise that the non-farm payroll data is correct and everything else needs to be dismissed by weather and other factors. Maybe we should ask why the non-farm payrolls number is different from everything else.”

Read more:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-17/something-strange-going-nonfarm-payrolls

Citizen Wells responded.

“You don’t have to be a rocket scientist or a math whiz to evaluate the data from the US Labor Department.

You just have to care and have basic math skills.

Sadly this is lacking in the mainstream media.

Even Fox News.

Some of the more blatant lies (yes Gallup CEO Jim Clifton was correct to call them lies), relate to the unemployment rate and it’s improvement and job growth.

For example, in February 2015 the Labor Dept. reported 295,000 jobs added.

However, there was only a 96,000  gain in employment.

And Whites had 43,000  fewer employments!

There were 354,000 more people not in the labor force!

There were 180,000 more people not in the labor force who want a job now!

Did you know?

5,205,000 full time employments were lost during the first year of Obama’s occupation of the White House from January 2009 to January 2010?

2.8 million white Americans fewer were employed during Obama’s first year.

During Obama’s term, from January 2009 to now, 75 percent of the employment went to Hispanics/Latinos.

Since it is PI Day and Einstein’s birthday, I present some new data and a math lesson. Math that I understood by the fifth grade.

Below are the changes in employment by race during the first 6 years of the Obama Administration.

The ratio of employment added in 6 years over employment in Jan. 2009 is given with the resulting percent change over 6 years.

White

1,172,000 / 116,863,000 = .01 = 1 %

Black

1,590,000 / 15,481,000 = .103 = 10.3 %

Hispanic/Latino

4,511,000 / 19,794,000 = .228 = 22.8 %

Asian

1,934,000 / 6,606,000 = .293 = 29.3 %

How do you like those numbers?

Seen/heard them reported by the White House or mainstream media, Fox?

Our math capabilities have diminished in this country.

But our real problems are priorities and integrity.”

https://citizenwells.wordpress.com/2015/03/18/fed-jitters-or-jobs-economy-jitters-jobs-employment-crisis-being-ignored-no-recovery-evidence-in-real-jobs-numbers-personal-and-construction-spending-record-government-food-stamp-and-public-assistan/

 

 

 

Fed jitters or jobs economy jitters, Jobs employment crisis being ignored, No recovery evidence in real jobs numbers personal and construction spending record government food stamp and public assistance, Initial claims

Fed jitters or jobs economy jitters, Jobs employment crisis being ignored, No recovery evidence in real jobs numbers personal and construction spending record government food stamp and public assistance, Initial claims

“Of the approx. 6 million new employments since Obama took office in January 2009, 4,511,000, 75 percent, were Hispanic/Latino!”…Citizen Wells

“In February 2015 there were 43,000 fewer white Americans employed, 354,000 more not in the labor force, 96,000 more employed and we added 295,000 jobs? Was Common Core math used?”…Citizen Wells

“Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.”…George Orwell, “1984″

 

 

From Market Watch March 18, 2015.

“U.S. stock futures down as Fed jitters intensify”

“U.S. stock futures began pushing south on Wednesday hours ahead of a statement from the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee, as investors grew nervous about whether the central bank will strike the right balance in setting the tone for its first rate hike in nearly a decade.”

“The smart money and the Fed: Stan Shamu, market strategist at IG, said in a note that many feel that Yellen will get it “absolutely right.” And he said the smart money will be looking to react to the results rather than trying to get ahead of the central bank’s moves.”

Read more:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-futures-on-pins-and-needles-as-fed-waiting-nears-an-end-2015-03-18?link=MW_home_latest_news

Wall Street and main street had better be worried about the real state of the economy and the jobs crisis in this country.

Yesterday Zero Hedge questioned the monthly jobs data from the US Labor Dept. BLS.

“Something Strange Is Going On With Nonfarm Payrolls”

“Falling wages aside (a critical topic as it singlehandedly refutes the Fed’s bedrock thesis of no slack in a labor force in which there are 93 million Americans who no longer participate in the job market) going back to the original topic of which economic factors are prompting the Fed to assume there is an economic recovery, without exaggeration, all alone.

Is there nothing else that can validate the Fed’s rate hike hypothesis? Well… no.

Below is a selection of the economic data points that have missed expectations in just the past month.

MISSES

  1. Personal Spending
  2. Construction Spending
  3. ISM New York
  4. Factory Orders
  5. Ward’s Domestic Vehicle Sales
  6. ADP Employment
  7. Challenger Job Cuts
  8. Initial Jobless Claims
  9. Nonfarm Productivity
  10. Trade Balance
  11. Unemployment Rate
  12. Labor Market Conditions Index
  13. NFIB Small Business Optimism
  14. Wholesale Inventories
  15. Wholesale Sales
  16. IBD Economic Optimism
  17. Mortgage Apps
  18. Retail Sales
  19. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
  20. Business Inventories
  21. UMich Consumer Sentiment
  22. Empire Manufacturing
  23. NAHB Homebuilder Confidence
  24. Housing Starts
  25. Building Permits
  26. PPI
  27. Industrial Production
  28. Capacity Utilization
  29. Manufacturing Production
  30. Dallas Fed
  31. Chicago Fed NAI
  32. Existing Home Sales
  33. Consumer Confidence
  34. Richmond Fed
  35. Personal Consumption
  36. ISM Milwaukee
  37. Chicago PMI
  38. Pending Home Sales
  39. Personal Income
  40. Personal Spending
  41. Construction Spending
  42. ISM Manufacturing
  43. Atlanta Fed GDPNow

So a pattern emerges: we have an economy in which jobs and only jobs are acting as if there is a strong recovery, while everything else is sliding, disappointing economists, and in fact hinting at another contraction (whatever you do, don’t look at the Fed’s internal model of Q1 GDP).

To be sure, economists these days are better known as weathermen, and so they are quick to blame every economic disappointment on the weather. Because, you see, they were unaware it was snowing outside when they provided their forecasts about the future, a future which should be impacted by the snowfall that day, and which they promptly scapegoat as the reason for their cluelessness. Yet one wonders: why didn’t the harsh snow (in the winter) pound February jobs as well? Recall last year’s payroll disappointments were immediately blamed on the weather which was just as “harsh” as this year. Why the difference?

And yet, today this rising “anomaly” between Nonfarm Payolls “data” and everything else, hit a crescendo, and some – such as Jim Bianco – have had it with the lies anomalies, which prompted him to ask the following:

Why Are Construction Jobs and Housing Starts Telling Different Stories? Is The Problem Non-Farm Payrolls

JobsHousingStarts

“Economists seem to start with the premise that the non-farm payroll data is correct and everything else needs to be dismissed by weather and other factors. Maybe we should ask why the non-farm payrolls number is different from everything else.”

Read more:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-17/something-strange-going-nonfarm-payrolls

Citizen Wells responded.

“You don’t have to be a rocket scientist or a math whiz to evaluate the data from the US Labor Department.

You just have to care and have basic math skills.

Sadly this is lacking in the mainstream media.

Even Fox News.

Some of the more blatant lies (yes Gallup CEO Jim Clifton was correct to call them lies), relate to the unemployment rate and it’s improvement and job growth.

For example, in February 2015 the Labor Dept. reported 295,000 jobs added.

However, there was only a 96,000  gain in employment.

And Whites had 43,000  fewer employments!

There were 354,000 more people not in the labor force!

There were 180,000 more people not in the labor force who want a job now!

Did you know?

5,205,000 full time employments were lost during the first year of Obama’s occupation of the White House from January 2009 to January 2010?

2.8 million white Americans fewer were employed during Obama’s first year.

During Obama’s term, from January 2009 to now, 75 percent of the employment went to Hispanics/Latinos.

Since it is PI Day and Einstein’s birthday, I present some new data and a math lesson. Math that I understood by the fifth grade.

Below are the changes in employment by race during the first 6 years of the Obama Administration.

The ratio of employment added in 6 years over employment in Jan. 2009 is given with the resulting percent change over 6 years.

White

1,172,000 / 116,863,000 = .01 = 1 %

Black

1,590,000 / 15,481,000 = .103 = 10.3 %

Hispanic/Latino

4,511,000 / 19,794,000 = .228 = 22.8 %

Asian

1,934,000 / 6,606,000 = .293 = 29.3 %

How do you like those numbers?

Seen/heard them reported by the White House or mainstream media, Fox?

Our math capabilities have diminished in this country.

But our real problems are priorities and integrity.”

https://citizenwells.wordpress.com/2015/03/14/pi-day-31415-aka-3-14159265359-math-skills-and-integrity-needed-for-us-media-horrible-us-jobs-situation-misportrayed-as-strong-white-americans-gain-1-percent-employment-under-obama-lowest-of-all/

 

 

 

Janet Yellen millennials a mystery, Citizen Wells schools Yellen, Student debt and jobs, Influx of illegals impacting job market, 75 percent of Obama jobs went to Hispanics Latinos, High unemployment rates for young Americans

Janet Yellen millennials a mystery, Citizen Wells schools Yellen, Student debt and jobs, Influx of illegals impacting job market, 75 percent of Obama jobs went to Hispanics Latinos, High unemployment rates for young Americans

“Of the approx. 6 million new employments since Obama took office in January 2009, 4,511,000, 75 percent, were Hispanic/Latino!”…Citizen Wells

“In today’s labor market, there are nearly 1 million “missing” young workers—potential workers who are neither employed nor actively seeking work (and are thus not counted in the unemployment rate) because job opportunities remain so scarce. If these missing workers were in the labor market looking for work, the unemployment rate of workers under age 25 would be 18.1 percent instead of 14.5 percent.”…Economic Policy Institute May 1, 2014

“Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.”…George Orwell, “1984″

 

 

Janet Yellen testified before congress today, February 24, 2015.

“Current Economic Situation and Outlook

Since my appearance before this Committee last July, the employment situation in the United States has been improving along many dimensions. The unemployment rate now stands at 5.7 percent, down from just over 6 percent last summer and from 10 percent at its peak in late 2009. The average pace of monthly job gains picked up from about 240,000 per month during the first half of last year to 280,000 per month during the second half, and employment rose 260,000 in January. In addition, long-term unemployment has declined substantially, fewer workers are reporting that they can find only part-time work when they would prefer full-time employment, and the pace of quits–often regarded as a barometer of worker confidence in labor market opportunities–has recovered nearly to its pre-recession level. However, the labor force participation rate is lower than most estimates of its trend, and wage growth remains sluggish, suggesting that some cyclical weakness persists. In short, considerable progress has been achieved in the recovery of the labor market, though room for further improvement remains.

At the same time that the labor market situation has improved, domestic spending and production have been increasing at a solid rate. Real gross domestic product (GDP) is now estimated to have increased at a 3-3/4 percent annual rate during the second half of last year. While GDP growth is not anticipated to be sustained at that pace, it is expected to be strong enough to result in a further gradual decline in the unemployment rate. Consumer spending has been lifted by the improvement in the labor market as well as by the increase in household purchasing power resulting from the sharp drop in oil prices. However, housing construction continues to lag; activity remains well below levels we judge could be supported in the longer run by population growth and the likely rate of household formation.”

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/yellen20150224a.htm

From CNN February 24, 2015.

“Janet Yellen: Millennials are a mystery”

“Millennials are a bit of a mystery to Janet Yellen.

The head of the U.S. Federal Reserve said Tuesday that the behavior of millennials — which typically refers to a generation of people born in the 80s and 90s — has top economists scratching their heads.

“I think we’re just beginning to understand how the millennials are behaving,” Yellen said before the Senate Banking Committee. “They’re certainly waiting longer to buy houses; to get married. They have a lot of student debt. They seem quite worried about housing as an investment. They’ve had a tough time in the job market.”

As the economy continues to gain strength, Yellen said she expects more millennials to buy homes and start families. “But,” she quipped, “we’ve yet to really see how this is going to affect that generation.””

Read more:

http://www.cnn.com/2015/02/24/politics/janet-yellen-capitol-hill-preview/index.html?iid=EL

“top economists scratching their heads.”

Janet Yellen apparently does not have a firm grasp of the impact of the economy on millennials.

Chief economist at Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius must not either.

Several weeks ago I corrected his statement about baby boomers impacting the drop in the percent of the population employed.

https://citizenwells.wordpress.com/2015/02/08/economist-jan-hatzius-baby-boomer-impact-debate-with-citizen-wells-drop-in-percent-of-population-working-email-debate-both-agree-not-enough-jobs-2-percent-allegation-in-cnbc-interview/

The problem with the percent of population employed is the increase of people over 16 in this country.

The US Labor Dept. states that we have approx. 15.5 million more since January 2009.

Those turning 16 each year netted by those dying adds approx. 1.5 million a year which totals 9 million since 2009.

From The Daily Caller February 23, 2015.

“But Obama has used his power over the immigration agencies to minimize enforcement of immigration laws. Since 2009, Obama’s senior deputies have repeatedly instructed his immigration agencies to reduce enforcement of immigration laws. For example, since 2009, his aides have given work-permits and temporary residency to 4.7 million migrants, including illegal immigrants, tourists, guest-workers and students.

That 4.7 million is in addition to the annual inflow of 1 million legal immigrants. Roughly 4 million American youths enter the workforce each year.”

Read more:

http://dailycaller.com/2015/02/23/federal-judge-new-illegal-immigrants-must-be-released/

So, there you have it.

At least 9 million native born Americans being added to the labor force and immigrants taking native born American jobs.

There was an increase of over 12 million not in the labor force since Obama took office.

The youngest members of the workforce, 16 and above will be hit the hardest by immigrant workers.

And all of those jobs that Obama bragged about and Janet Yellen and others referred to….

Of the approx. 6 million new employments since Obama took office in January 2009, 4,511,000 were Hispanic/Latino!

We have barely, if at all,  recovered all of the jobs lost during the recession and 75% of the job growth went to Hispanic/Latinos!!

There were approx. 1.8 more people employed in the last 6 months. 50 percent of those, approx. 900,000, were Hispanic/Latino.

From CNS News February 17, 2015.

“Census Bureau: 30.3% Millennials Still Living With Their Parents”

Read more:

http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/ali-meyer/census-bureau-303-millennials-still-living-their-parents

From the Economic Policy Institute May 1, 2014.

“This paper’s title, The Class of 2014, is admittedly something of a misnomer, as we do not yet know the labor market outcomes of these soon-to-be graduates. However, the outcomes of recent high school and college graduates provide a good sense of the labor market conditions the young men and women graduating this spring will face. This briefing paper examines the labor market that confronts young graduates who are not enrolled in further schooling—specifically, high school graduates age 17–20 and college graduates age 21–24. We look at young graduates who are not enrolled in further schooling in an attempt to focus as closely as possible on the labor market outcomes of those who are starting their careers. ”

“Key findings include:”

  • “In today’s labor market, there are nearly 1 million “missing” young workers—potential workers who are neither employed nor actively seeking work (and are thus not counted in the unemployment rate) because job opportunities remain so scarce. If these missing workers were in the labor market looking for work, the unemployment rate of workers under age 25 would be 18.1 percent instead of 14.5 percent.
  • Unemployment and underemployment rates among young graduates are improving but remain substantially higher than before the recession began.
    • For young college graduates, the unemployment rate is currently 8.5 percent (compared with 5.5 percent in 2007), and the underemployment rate is 16.8 percent (compared with 9.6 percent in 2007).
    • For young high school graduates, the unemployment rate is 22.9 percent (compared with 15.9 percent in 2007), and the underemployment rate is 41.5 percent (compared with 26.8 percent in 2007).
  • Overall unemployment rates of young graduates mask substantial disparities in unemployment by race and ethnicity. The unemployment rates of blacks and Hispanics are substantially higher than the unemployment rates of white non-Hispanics, for both young high school graduates and young college graduates.
  • The large increases since 2007 in the unemployment and underemployment rates of young college graduates, and in the share of employed young college graduates working in jobs that do not require a college degree, underscore that the current unemployment crisis among young workers did not arise because today’s young adults lack the right education or skills. Rather, it stems from weak demand for goods and services, which makes it unnecessary for employers to significantly ramp up hiring.
  • The long-run wage trends for young graduates are bleak, with wages substantially lower today than in 2000. Since 2000, the real (inflation-adjusted) wages of young high school graduates have dropped 10.8 percent, and those of young college graduates have dropped 7.7 percent.
  • The erosion of job quality for young graduates is also evident in their declining likelihood of receiving employer-provided health insurance or pensions.
  • Graduating in a bad economy has long-lasting economic consequences. For the next 10 to 15 years, those in the Class of 2014 will likely earn less than if they had graduated when job opportunities were plentiful.”

Read more:

http://www.epi.org/publication/class-of-2014/

 From Market Watch February 18, 2015.

“High student debt equals fewer home buyers”

“Going to college usually leads to better jobs and better pay, but it’s also left many people dangerously in debt and unable to buy a house years after they leave school.

A pair of reports in the past two days illustrate the point. The percentage of student loans at least 90 days overdue rose to 11.3% from 11.1% in the final three months of 2014, the New York Federal Reserve said Tuesday.

While delinquencies have fallen from a record 11.8% in 2013, they are still almost twice as high as they were 10 years earlier.

Then on Wednesday the government reported that construction of new homes fell slightly to a 1.06 million annual pace in January. While sales have been rising gradually, they still aren’t increasing nearly as fast as expected almost six years into an recovery. And the percentage of buyers purchasing their first home is still unusually low.

In a fully functioning economy, housing starts should be running around 1.4 million to 1.8 million a year, analysts estimate.

Clearly the weight of student loans is too heavy for many young people to buy a single-family home. Many can’t qualify for a loan in an era of tougher lending standards or afford the monthly cost of a mortgage.”

Read more:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/high-student-debt-equals-fewer-home-buyers-2015-02-18

Janet Yellen, which part of the millennial reality do you not understand???

 

 

 

 

 

 

14 Signs That Most Americans Are Flat Broke, Millions out of work or working part time jobs, 30.3 percent of millenials live with family members, 75 percent of Obama jobs went to Hispanics and Latinos, Record numbers get government assistance

14 Signs That Most Americans Are Flat Broke, Millions out of work or working part time jobs, 30.3 percent of millenials live with family members, 75 percent of Obama jobs went to Hispanics and Latinos, Record numbers get government assistance

“Of the approx. 6 million new employments since Obama took office in January 2009, 4,511,000, 75 percent, were Hispanic/Latino!”…Citizen Wells

“Over the last six months, of the net job creation, 97 percent of that is part-time work,”…Keith Hall, former BLS chief

“Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.”…George Orwell, “1984″

 

 

I was preparing another article about the testimony of Janet Yellen when I ran across a hard hitting article from Zero Hedge.

She is clueless and/or being controlled.

She apparently doesn’t understand the plight of millenials.

Or the average American.

Am I the only one reporting that 75 percent of the Obama jobs added went to Hispanics/Latinos?

This comes straight from the US Labor Department data.

How about telling Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity.

We all know how bad the economy is.

We or people we know are getting clobbered and we are tired of being told about the recovery.

From Zero Hedge February 24, 2015.

“14 Signs That Most Americans Are Flat Broke And Totally Unprepared For The Coming Economic Crisis”

“The following are 14 signs that most Americans are flat broke and totally unprepared for the coming economic crisis…

#1 According to a survey that was just released, 24 percent of all Americans have more credit card debt than emergency savings.

#2 That same survey discovered that an additional 13 percent of all Americans do not have any credit card debt, but they do not have a single penny of emergency savings either.

#3 At this point, approximately 62 percent of all Americans are living paycheck to paycheck.

#4 Adults under the age of 35 in the United States currently have a savings rate of negative 2 percent.

#5 More than half of all students in U.S. public schools come from families that are poor enough to qualify for school lunch subsidies.

#6 A study that was conducted last year found that more than one out of every three adults in the United States has an unpaid debt that is “in collections“.

#7 One survey discovered that 52 percent of all Americans really cannot even financially afford the homes that they are living in right now.

#8 According to research conducted by Atif Mian of Princeton University and Amir Sufi of the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, 40 percent of Americans could not come up with $2000 right now without borrowing it.

#9 That same study found that 60 percent of Americans could not say yes to the following question…

“Do you have 3 months emergency funds to cover expenses in case of sickness, job loss, economic downturn?”

#10 A different study discovered that less than one out of every four Americans has enough money stored away to cover six months of expenses.

#11 Today, the average American household is carrying a grand total of 203,163 dollars of debt.

#12 It is estimated that less than 10 percent of the entire U.S. population owns any gold or silver for investment purposes.

#13 48 percent of all Americans do not have any emergency supplies in their homes whatsoever.

#14 53 percent of all Americans do not even have a minimum three day supply of nonperishable food and water in their homes.”

Read more:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-24/14-signs-most-americans-are-flat-broke-and-totally-unprepared-coming-economic-crisis

Janet Yellen February 24, 2015 semi annual monetary policy testimony, Humphrey-Hawkins, Yellen speaking to Hispanics?, Labor market improved further second half last year and early 2015?, For Whom?, Yellen correct about part time jobs

Janet Yellen February 24, 2015 semi annual monetary policy testimony, Humphrey-Hawkins, Yellen speaking to Hispanics?, Labor market improved further second half last year and early 2015?, For Whom?, Yellen correct about part time jobs

“Of the approx. 6 million new employments since Obama took office in January 2009, 4,511,000, 75 percent, were Hispanic/Latino!”…Citizen Wells

“Over the last six months, of the net job creation, 97 percent of that is part-time work,”…Keith Hall, former BLS chief

“Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.”…George Orwell, “1984″

 

Janet Yellen, as I write this, is giving her semi annual monetary policy, Humphrey-Hawkins, testimony.

Is she on drugs?

Or is she addressing primarily Hispanics?

From the transcript.

“The labor market improved further during the
second half of last year and into early 2015,
and labor market conditions moved closer to
those the Federal Open Market Committee
(FOMC) judges consistent with its maximum
employment mandate. Since the middle of last
year, monthly payrolls have expanded by about
280,000, on average, and the unemployment
rate has declined nearly ½ percentage point
on net. Nevertheless, a range of labor market
indicators suggest that there is still room for
improvement. In particular, at 5.7 percent, the
unemployment rate is still above most FOMC
participants’ estimates of its longer-run
normal level, the labor force participation rate
remains below most assessments of its trend,
an unusually large number of people continue
to work part time when they would prefer
full-time employment, and wage growth has
continued to be slow.”

http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/20150224_mprfullreport.pdf

Reported at Citizen Wells February 24, 2015.

“There are numerous variations of the AP January 2015 jobs report from around February 7, 2015.

The Greensboro News Record regurgitated their own version in print. I could not find an online version so the print edition is provided in full below.

The News Record has been diligent in fact checking the employment data and record of the NC Republicans in power but when it comes to Obama and the national economy, anything goes.

I am disappointed that instead of fact checking the AP article and presenting the truth, they regurgitated it.”

“First lie/inaccuracy: There were 3 million not 3.2 million more people working since last January.

Error of omission: Over 1.3 million of those gains in employment in the last year went to Hispanic/Latinos.”

“Of the approx. 6 million new employments since Obama took office in January 2009, 4,511,000 were Hispanic/Latino!

We have barely, if at all,  recovered all of the jobs lost during the recession and 75% of the job growth went to Hispanic/Latinos!!

The large numbers of young people entering the labor force are the reason that the percent of population working has dropped under Obama. I will examine this more in detail and report soon.

Approx. 9 million people net have entered the population counted by the BLS for employment population since Obama took office. That is the people turning 16 years old subtracted by deaths. That is the reason for the increase in those not in the labor force, not baby boomers as some would have you believe.

There was an increase of over 12 million not in the labor force since Obama took office.”

““The labor market was about the last thing to recover from the Great Recession, and in the last six months it has picked up steam,”
There were approx. 1.8 more people employed in the last 6 months. 50 percent of those, approx. 900,000, were Hispanic/Latino.”

https://citizenwells.wordpress.com/2015/02/22/ap-january-jobs-economy-report-lies-inaccuracies-misleading-statements-greensboro-news-record-regurgitates-sloppy-reporting-bias-or-orwellian-lies/

If you are Hispanic, especially an illegal alien, you are doing well in this Obama economy.