Category Archives: polls

MA Senate debate, Monday, January 18, 2010, Scott Brown, Martha Coakley, Joseph L. Kennedy, Youtube video, Final debate, Turnout Critical in Tight Massachusetts Senate Race

****  UPDATES BELOW  ****

This article will be updated during the day today.

The final debate of the MA Senate race will take place tonight, January 18, 2010 .

From Fox News.

“Turnout Critical in Tight Massachusetts Senate Race”

“Both sides say turnout will be key in a race that could decide the fate of President Barack Obama’s health care overhaul. Obama campaigned Sunday for Democrat Martha Coakley.”

“BOSTON – Democrats and Republicans ramped up election eve get-out-the-vote efforts in their close battle for a Massachusetts Senate seat that could decide the fate of President Barack Obama’s health care overhaul and the rest of his agenda at the opening of the 2010 midterm campaign season.

Obama needs newly embattled Martha Coakley to win Tuesday’s special election for the late Edward Kennedy’s Senate seat and deny Republicans the ability to block his initiatives with a 41st filibuster-sustaining GOP vote.

The president campaigned here Sunday with Coakley, who has seen the double-digit lead she had two weeks ago evaporate under a strong challenge by Republican state Sen. Scott Brown.

Voter turnout is normally low in special elections, but even in staunchly Democratic Massachusetts, apprehension about Obama’s health care overhaul is fueling a huge wave of populist support for Brown.

Polls show that independents, who make up 51 percent of the state’s electorate, have responded enthusiastically to Brown. His campaign is targeting them as well Republicans, who are outnumbered by Democrats 3-to-1 in the Bay State.”

Read more:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/01/18/turnout-key-tight-massachusetts-senate-race/

MA Senate debate, Monday, January 18, 2010, Scott Brown, Martha Coakley, Joseph L. Kennedy

****  Update January 18, 2010,  1:50 PM  ****

From Fox News

“Voter Enthusiasm a Problem for Coakley, Polls Suggest”

“A new poll out of Public Policy Polling on Monday underscored the depth of Coakley’s challenge. 

The poll showed Brown leading 51-46 overall, 64-32 among independents and winning 20 percent of the vote from those who backed Obama in 2008. On the flip side, the survey showed Coakley pulling just 4 percent of the vote from those who backed John McCain, in the 2008 presidential race. 

And the poll reflected the enthusiasm gap from which Coakley suffers. Eighty percent of Brown supporters said they were “very excited” about Tuesday’s election, while only 60 percent of Coakley supporters felt the same way.” 

Read more:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/01/18/polls-suggest-voter-enthusiasm-problem-coakley/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%253A+foxnews%252Flatest+%2528Text+-+Latest+Headlines%2529

“White House Predicts Martha Coakley Will Lose Tuesday’s Election”

****  Update January 18, 2010,  4:45 PM  ****

****  Update January 18, 2010,  6:20 PM  ****

From CNN Political Ticker

“Poll: Brown makes gains in Mass. Senate Race”

” A new poll released Monday afternoon indicates that Republican Scott Brown has a 7-point edge over Democrat Martha Coakley in Tuesday’s special election in Massachusetts for the late Sen. Ted Kennedy’s seat.

According to an American Research Group survey, 52 percent of likely voters back Brown, a state senator, with 45 percent supporting Coakley, the state’s attorney general. Meanwhile, 2 percent back Joseph Kennedy, a third party candidate who is not related to the late senator. The 7-point advantage for Brown is just within the poll’s sampling error.”

Read more:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2010/01/18/poll-brown-makes-gains-in-mass-senate-race/

****  Update January 18, 2010,  7:25 PM  ****

From Politico

“New poll: Brown up 9”

“A new InsiderAdvantage poll conducted exclusively for POLITICO shows Republican Scott Brown surging to a 9-point advantage over Martha Coakley a day before Massachusetts voters trek to the ballot box to choose a new senator.
According to the survey conducted Sunday evening, Brown leads the Democratic attorney general 52 percent to 43 percent.
“I actually think the bottom is falling out,” said InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery, referring to Coakley’s fall in the polls over the last ten days. “I think that this candidate is in freefall. Clearly this race is imploding for her.””
Read more:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0110/31621.html

Scott Brown campaigns in Middleboro MA, January 16, 2010, MA Senate race, True Republican, Videos, Youtube video, Everett Square, Spoke from the back of a pickup truck, You deserve better, Taxes, Creating jobs

From Everett News, January 17, 2010.

“Scott Brown campaigns in Middleboro on Saturday night
More than 500 supporters attend event”

“MIDDLEBORO — Scott Brown pulled into Everett Square on Saturday night and spoke from the back of a pickup truck to more than 500 supporters.

The crowd filled the Flat Iron Cafe and even spilled out into the square, filling the parking lot of the Rockland Trust Bank.

Brown spoke briefly to the crowd and was greeted with cheers and chants as he outlined his platform and said.

“You deserve better. … When I go to Washington, I will do my very best to stop backroom deals. We’ve lost our way,” he told the crowd.

Brown spent more time on the ground shaking hands with the crowd, which was a cross section of steel workers, farmers, doctors and the unemployed.

Many, like David Ng of Pembroke, had already voted by absentee ballot. Ng said his vote was against “everything the Democrats try to ram down our throats.””

“Brown’s stand on taxes and creating jobs was a high priority for Voneow. Bill is out of work, and the couple is trying to make ends meet on one paycheck.

“He stands for working like a true Republican instead of feeding special interests. He’s the guy I think can help us,” said Bill.”

“Her husband, Norman, 88, a former member of the Planning Board had already voted for Brown by absentee ballot. Their son, Douglas, said he supports Brown because “he’ll take the reigns of government back from socialist concerns.”

Many in the crowd said the election has national ramifications, calling it a vote that will be heard around the world.”

Read more:

http://www.enterprisenews.com/news/x1685418015/Scott-Brown-campaigns-in-Middleboro-on-Saturday-night

Scott Brown in Middleboro

Part 1

Part 2

Thanks to commenter Jacqlyn Smith, et al.

Scott Brown campaigns in Worcester MA, Obama campaigns for Martha Coakley, Barack Obama heckled, January 17, 2010, Red Sox’s Schilling stumps for GOP Senate hopeful, Doug Flutie, Ayla Brown

While Obama was campaigning for Martha Coakley in Boston this afternoon, January 17, 2010, Scott Brown was campaigning in Worcester, MA.

From the Boston Herald.

“Energized Brown mocks desperate Dems”

“GOP upstart state Sen. Scott Brown took aim at Democratic opponent Attorney General Martha Coakley’s presidential bailout this afternoon, telling a packed hall of rowdy supporters he would stay connected to them and not embrace Washington, D.C. insiders.

“They put in a distress call to Washington, and the next thing you know, Air Force One is landing at Logan,” Brown said of President Obama’s Boston visit today. “The party bosses gave the president some bad information. This Senate seat belongs to no one person and no one political party, it belongs to the people of Massachusetts.”

Brown, bolstered by a last-minute campaign surge in the polls, reminded the crowd of over 2,000 people that he is their candidate.

“I’m Scott Brown, I’m from Wrentham, I drive a truck and I’m asking for your vote,” he said. Then he referenced Obama’s come-from-behind presidential campaign. “After all, who ever heard of a guy from Wrentham getting elected to the U.S. Senate? But as the president might remember, upsets like that have been known to happen.”

Brown was serenaded by his daughter, former “American Idol” semi-finalist Ayla Brown, backslapped by Red Sox [team stats] ace pitcher Curt Schilling [stats], and pumped up by former “Cheers” know-it-all John Ratzenberger during the electric rally.”

Read more:
Boston Herald report

“Barack Obama was heckled at his Bush-bash Coakley rally in Boston today… for about 3 minutes.”

American Research Group poll, Scott Brown leads Martha Coakley, MA Senate race, January 15, 2010, Brown 94% Republicans, Coakley 71% Democrats

From American Research Group, January 15, 2010. Scott Brown leads Martha Coakley in the MA Senate race 48% to 45%.

“January 15, 2010 – Massachusetts US Senate

Massachusetts US Senate
1/14/2010 Brown Coakley Kennedy Undecided
 
Likely voters 48% 45% 2% 5%
 
Registration:        
Democrats (44%) 20% 71% 1% 8%
Republicans (20%) 94% 1% 5%
Unenrolled/
Other (36%)
58% 37% 4% 1%
 
Sex:        
Men (47%) 54% 39% 2% 5%
Women (53%) 44% 50% 2% 4%
 
Age:        
18-49 (43%) 52% 42% 2% 4%
50 plus (57%) 46% 47% 1% 6%

Republican Scott Brown leads Democrat Martha Coakley 48% to 45% in the special Massachusetts US Senate race to replace Senator Ted Kennedy in a telephone survey conducted January 12-14 among 600 likely voters in Massachusetts saying they will definitely vote in the special election on January 19. 

Brown leads Coakley 94% to 1% among registered Republicans and he leads 58% to 37% among unenrolled voters. Coakley leads Brown 71% to 20% among registered Democrats. A total of 8% of Democrats and 5% of Republicans remain undecided.

Brown leads 54% to 39% among men while Coakley leads 50% to 44% among women.

Brown leads 52% to 42% among likely voters age 18 to 49 and Coakley leads 47% to 46% among voters 50 and older.

A total of 9% of likely voters say they have already voted by absentee ballot, with Brown leading Coakley 58% to 42%.”

Read more:

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/

Scott Brown, MA senate race poll, January 15, 2010, Suffolk University 7News poll, Poll shocker Scott Brown surges ahead in Senate race, Opposition to Democratic health care reform

From the Boston herald, January 15, 2010.

“Poll shocker: Scott Brown surges ahead in Senate race”

“Riding a wave of opposition to Democratic health-care reform, GOP upstart Scott Brown is leading in the U.S. Senate race, raising the odds of a historic upset that would reverberate all the way to the White House, a new poll shows.

Although Brown’s 4-point lead over Democrat Martha Coakley is within the Suffolk University/7News survey’s margin of error, the underdog’s position at the top of the results stunned even pollster David Paleologos.

“It’s a Brown-out,” said Paleologos, director of Suffolk’s Political Research Center. “It’s a massive change in the political landscape.”

The poll shows Brown, a state senator from Wrentham, besting Coakley, the state’s attorney general, by 50 percent to 46 percent, the first major survey to show Brown in the lead. Unenrolled long-shot Joseph L. Kennedy, an information technology executive with no relation to the famous family, gets 3 percent of the vote. Only 1 percent of voters were undecided.

Paleologos said bellweather models show high numbers of independent voters turning out on election day, which benefits Brown, who has 65 percent of that bloc compared to Coakley’s 30 percent. Kennedy earns just 3 percent of the independent vote, and 1 percent are undecided.

Given the 4.4-point margin of error, the poll shows Coakley could win the race, Paleologos said. But if Brown’s momentum holds, he is poised to succeed the late Sen. Edward M. Kennedy – and to halt health-care reform, the issue the late senator dubbed “the cause of my life.”

Yet even in the bluest state, it appears Kennedy’s quest for universal health care has fallen out of favor, with 51 percent of voters saying they oppose the “national near-universal health-care package” and 61 percent saying they believe the government cannot afford to pay for it.

The poll, conducted Monday through Wednesday, surveyed 500 registered likely voters who knew the date of Tuesday’s election. It shows Brown leading all regions of the state except Suffolk County.

“Either Brown’s momentum accelerates and his lead widens, or this becomes a wake-up call for Coakley to become the ‘Comeback Kid’ this weekend,” Paleologos said.

And with 99 percent having made up their minds, voters may be hard to persuade.

The poll surveyed a carefully partitioned electorate meant to match voter turnout: 39 percent Democrat, 15 percent Republican and 45 percent unenrolled.”

Read more:

http://www.bostonherald.com/news/politics/view.bg?articleid=1225720&format=text

 

Scott Brown ahead in Poll, January 15, 2010, Suffolk University Poll, News 7 Boston

Scott Brown, Boston Herald poll, January 14, 2010, If Scott Brown pulls an upset in the U.S. Senate race, how should his swearing-in proceed?, 47% Get it done by January 20

From the Boston Herald, January 14, 2010, at approx 1:00 PM EST.

“If Scott Brown pulls an upset in the U.S. Senate race, how should his swearing-in proceed?”

14% – Wait 10 days for the votes to be certified
36% – Bypass it all and swear him in right away
3% – Wait for certification until Feb. 20, to be safe
47% – Get it done by the Jan. 20 U.S. Senate session

Total Votes: 17,593

Why is this so controversial?


Reported here, January 9, 2010.


““This is a stunning admission by Paul Kirk and the Beacon Hill political machine,” said Brown in a statement. “Paul Kirk appears to be suggesting that he, Deval Patrick, and (Senate Majority Leader) Harry Reid intend to stall the election certification until the health care bill is rammed through Congress, even if that means defying the will of the people of Massachusetts.”
Scott Brown Certification delayed for Health Care Bill