Category Archives: Obama taxes

Jobless claims rise, Unemployment rate, Real truth about economy, College graduates and summer jobs

Jobless claims rise, Unemployment rate, Real truth about economy

“Winston dialed “back numbers” on the telescreen and called
for the appropriate issues of the Times, which slid out of
the pneumatic tube after only a few minutes’ delay.  The
messages he had received referred to articles or news items
which for one reason or another it was thought necessary to
alter, or, as the official phrase had it, to rectify.  For
example, it appeared from the Times of the seventeenth of
March that Big Brother, in his speech of the previous day,
had predicted that the South Indian front would remain quiet
but that a Eurasian offensive would shortly be launched in
North Africa.  As it happened, the Eurasian Higher Command
had launched its offensive in South India and left North
Africa alone.  It was therefore necessary to rewrite a
paragraph of Big Brother’s speech in such a way as to make
him predict the thing that had actually happened.”…George Orwell, “1984”

I had a conversation with a savvy friend of mine yesterday, who keeps up with news and gets it about the economy. I told him that I had been watching the jobless claims reports and that I was curious about the next report, which came out this morning. I applied some common sense and questioned what the real unemployment numbers are when the new college graduates are factored in. We both agreed that the real unemployed figure was far greater than the 9.7 % figure offered by the federal government.

This morning one of my questions was answered.

“In the week ending June 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 472,000, an increase of 12,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 460,000.”

Read more:

https://citizenwells.com/2010/06/17/jobless-claims-rise-june-17-2010-us-labor-dept-12000-increase-initial-claims-472000/

This probably does not factor in recent college grads but it is, however, a best case scenario from the government. I continue to read the fairy tales about the economy while truth reporters such as Rush Limbaugh warn that much of the business activity is geared to putting income in 2010 and not later years when Obama tax increases will be non business, non economy friendly.

May payroll numbers worse than forecast, Employers in the US hired fewer workers in May, Payrolls rose by 431000, Economists projected a 536000, Stock futures drop

May payroll numbers worse than forecast, Employers in the US hired fewer workers

From Bloomberg June 4, 2010.

“Employers in the U.S. hired fewer workers in May than forecast and Americans dropped out of the labor force, showing a lack of confidence in the recovery that may lead to slower economic growth.

Payrolls rose by 431,000 last month, including a 411,000 jump in government hiring of temporary workers for the 2010 census, Labor Department figures in Washington showed today. Economists projected a 536,000 gain, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. Private payrolls rose a less-than-forecast 41,000. The jobless rate fell to 9.7 percent.

Staff reductions at companies such as Hewlett-Packard Co. and Citigroup Inc. indicate a slowing in the labor market that threatens to restrain consumer spending, the biggest part of the economy. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said yesterday that unemployment was exacting a heavy toll, showing why economists forecast interest rates will remain low.

“It’s going to be a long haul,” Michael Englund, chief economist at Action Economics LLC in Boulder, Colorado, said before the report. “We really aren’t adding many jobs. We’ve lost some momentum in the economy and final sales clearly aren’t enough to generate job growth.”

Stock-index futures fell and Treasury securities rose after the report. The contract on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 2.1 percent to 1,080 at 8:38 a.m. in New York. The 10- year Treasury note rose, pushing down the yield to 3.27 percent from 3.37 percent late yesterday.”

“Payrolls estimates in the Bloomberg survey of 82 economists ranged from 220,000 to 750,000 after a gain of 290,000 jobs in April. Economists surveyed also forecast the jobless rate fell to 9.8 percent last month from 9.9 percent in April. Unemployment reached a 26-year high of 10.1 percent in October. The May figures showed the labor force shrank 322,000.

Federal hiring of temporary workers to conduct the decennial population count probably peaked last month, economists said.

The unwinding of census employment may keep distorting the payroll figures for months as the government dismisses workers when the count is completed. For that reason, economists say private payrolls, which exclude government jobs, will be a better gauge of the state of the labor market for much of 2010.”

Read more:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ax55j3oSwVuI&pos=1

Jobless claims report May 27 2010, US Labor Dept, Initial claims 460000, Decrease of 14000, This is good news?

Jobless claims report May 27 2010, US Labor Dept, Initial claims 460000, Decrease of 14000

This is good news?

From the US Department of Labor May 27, 2010.

“UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

          SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending May 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 460,000, a decrease of 14,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 474,000. The 4-week moving average was 456,500, an increase of 2,250 from the previous week’s revised average of 454,250.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.6 percent for the week ending May 15, unchanged from the prior week’s unrevised rate of 3.6 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending May 15 was 4,607,000, a decrease of 49,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 4,656,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,637,250, a decrease of 11,500 from the preceding week’s revised average of 4,648,750.

The fiscal year-to-date average of seasonally adjusted weekly insured unemployment, which corresponds to the appropriated AWIU trigger, was 5.134 million. 

UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 404,325 in the week ending May 22, a decrease of 5,765 from the previous week. There were 538,311 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.4 percent during the week ending May 15, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 4,381,421, a decrease of 88,300 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 4.6 percent and the volume was 6,153,284.
Extended benefits were available in Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, and Wisconsin during the week ending May 8.

Initial claims for UI benefits by former Federal civilian employees totaled 1,481 in the week ending May 15, an increase of 163 from the prior week. There were 2,369 initial claims by newly discharged veterans, a decrease of 120 from the preceding week.

There were 17,937 former Federal civilian employees claiming UI benefits for the week ending May 8, an increase of 577 from the previous week. Newly discharged veterans claiming benefits totaled 36,370, an increase of 1,365 from the prior week.

States reported 5,059,843 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending May 8, a decrease of 41,403 from the prior week. There were 2,185,863 claimants in the comparable week in 2009. EUC weekly claims include first, second, third, and fourth tier activity.

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending May 8 were in Puerto Rico (6.2 percent), Alaska (5.9), Oregon (5.4), Nevada (4.9), California (4.8), Pennsylvania (4.7), Wisconsin (4.5), North Carolina (4.4), Montana (4.3), and Connecticut (4.2).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending May 15 were in Tennessee (+3,041), Missouri (+2,369), Mississippi (+1,697), Illinois (+1,154), and Arkansas (+851), while the largest decreases were in California (-2,161), Michigan (-2,133), Washington (-1,968), Florida (-1,480), and Oregon (-1,200).”

Read more:

 http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm

Jobless claims May 27, 2010, Labor Department report 8:30, Claims drop?, College graduates, College students, Real unemployment number, Open thread discussion

Jobless claims May 27, 2010, Labor Department report 8:30

The Jobless Claims Reports for the week will be released by the US Department of Labor today, May 27, 2010 at 8:30. Will the report show a drop this week instead of another increase like last week’s 25, 000? What is the real unemployment rate? It is certainly higher than 9.9%. Hundreds of thousands of high school and college graduates are entering the job market. What impact will that have?  Here is a possible reflection of the new figures.

From Real Clear Markets.

“The number of people filing new claims for unemployment benefits likely fell last week.

Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect new applications for unemployment benefits will show a drop of 16,000 to a seasonally adjusted total of 455,000. The Labor Department will issue the report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

New claims had risen unexpectedly by 25,000 the previous week, the biggest increase in three months and the first rise in five weeks. It pushed the claims level to 471,000.

The surge was seen as further evidence of how volatile the job market remains, even as the economy grows.”

Read more:

http://www.realclearmarkets.com/news/ap/finance_business/2010/May/27/ahead_of_the_bell__jobless_claims.html

Obama approval rating -22, Lowest Obama approval rating, May 26, 2010, Rasmussen, 45% strongly disapprove

Obama approval rating -22, Lowest Obama approval rating, May 26, 2010

From Rasmussen May 26, 2010.

“The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows that 23% of the nation’s voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty-five percent (45%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -22. That’s the lowest Approval Index rating yet measured for this president (see trends).

Enthusiasm for the president among Democrats, which bounced following passage of the health care law, has faded again. Just 48% of those in the president’s party now Strongly Approve of Obama’s performance. That’s down from 65% earlier.

Among men, 20% Strongly Approve and 50% Strongly Disapprove. Among women, those numbers are 27% and 40% (see other recent demographic highlights).

The Presidential Approval Index is calculated by subtracting the number who Strongly Disapprove from the number who Strongly Approve. It is updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update). Updates are also available on Twitter and Facebook.

Overall, 43% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president’s performance. Fifty-five percent (56%) disapprove.

The number who give the president good or excellent marks for handling the economy has fallen to 35%. That’s down four points from a week ago. Forty-eight percent (48%) say the nation’s economic problems were caused primarily by President Bush while 43% blame President Obama. See other measures of the president’s performance at Obama By the Numbers.”

Read more:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

US economy slowdown, Economy cooling, Financial markets, Corporate forecasts, Soft retail sales, Rise in jobless claims

US economy slowdown, Economy cooling, Financial markets, Corporate forecasts

From Daily Finance May 22, 2010.

“Forget Europe: Signs of a Slowdown in the U.S.”
“Financial markets around the world are fixated on Europe as it grapples with its debt woes. Though probably overdone, investor paranoia is understandable. The fallout for the global economy would be massive if things spiraled out of control, unlikely as that may seem for the moment.

While potentially catastrophic developments overseas may be captivating, investors would do well to stay focused on more subtle developments in the U.S. Much of Wall Street remains bullish on the prospects of an economic recovery, but some signs suggest that a slowdown may be materializing nonetheless.

Watch Corporate Guidance and Economic Indicators

Hosted software provider Salesforce.com (CRM) is the latest company to report strong results for the first quarter but provide a forecast that couldn’t live up to Wall Street’s expectations. On Thursday, the company said it expected earnings per share of between $1.13 and $1.15 for the full year. That was well below the $1.28 analysts had forecast, and shares tumbled in trading after hours.

The results from Salesforce.com mirror those of networking giant Cisco (CSCO) last week. While Cisco delivered a strong first quarter, shares were initially hammered based on a lackluster outlook for the rest of the year. Hardware giant Dell (DELL) also came under fire as concerns about its ability to maintain profits grew despite solid results for the first quarter.

A slew of retailers including Lowe’s (LOW), Home Depot (HD) and Wal-Mart (WMT) have also provided skimpy guidance for the rest of the year. And while companies may well be trying to game Wall Street by setting the bar low only to dazzle later, recent economic data suggests that the economy could also be slowing after a sharp rebound in demand from depressed lows.

A set of closely watched indicators released Thursday by the Conference Board showed that the economy may be cooling as it heads into the second half of the year. Those findings echo leading indicators monitored by the Economic Cycle Research Institute, which noted that “the pace of improvement in the overall economy is set to slacken in the months ahead” as measures fell to a 40-week low.

Soft retail sales and a sudden rise in jobless claims have contributed to the darkening picture.”

Read more:

http://www.dailyfinance.com/story/investing/forget-europe-signs-of-a-slowdown-in-the-u-s/19487132/

Stocks dive, Futures dive, Jobless claims up, Unemployment Debt Foreign Economies, This ain’t rocket science

Stocks dive, Futures dive, Jobless claims up, Unemployment Debt Foreign Economies

From the Chicago Tribune May 20, 2010.

“Stocks take hard tumble
376-point drop puts major indexes at a loss for year”

“The stock market had its worst day in more than year Thursday, with the Dow industrials tumbling more than 376 points, as fear intensified that a debt crisis in Europe could jeopardize the global economic recovery.

The sell-off put the major U.S. stock indexes, including the Dow, in the red for the year and down more than 10 percent in less than four weeks, the market’s sharpest retreat since March 2009, when prices bottomed at 12-year lows.

Analysts said there was no dramatic news to explain the day’s declines, including the largest one-day point drop in the Dow since February 2009. And despite the fiscal problems of Greece and other European countries, most forecasters predict the U.S. economy will continue the moderate recovery it began last year.

But mixed signals coming from across the Atlantic about the ability and willingness of leaders there to manage the crisis has made U.S. investors anxious.

As a result, volatility in the stock market has increased sharply of late. Thursday’s drop was the 13th time in the last 18 sessions that the Dow has had a triple-digit move.”

“The crash appears to have damaged the psyche of some individual investors just as they were beginning to regain confidence in stocks after the deep bear market of 2007-09.

“People are more nervous than they would have been, say, three years ago, with this sort of decline because they’re picturing what they went through in 2008,” said Mark Wilson, a financial planner at the Tarbox Group. “The basic question is: ‘Are we going right back to where we started from? Should we be getting out now in anticipation of going back to those 2008 levels?'”

Wilson said he was cautioning clients not to overreact, pointing out that 10 percent declines, known as corrections, that merely interrupt longer bull markets are normal.

Nonetheless, in the week that began the day of the crash, individual investors pulled $14 billion from mutual funds, the first such net withdrawal since March 2009.”

“The outlook was not helped by two discouraging pieces of news about the American economy.

The Labor Department said initial claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose 25,000 last week, to 471,000. Meanwhile, The Conference Board, a private research group, reported its index of leading economic indicators fell 0.1 percent in April, its first decline since March 2009.”

Read more:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/feed/sc-biz-0521-markets–20100520,0,4858776.story?page=1

Bull Market?

I don’t see it.
Glenn Beck has done a good job of covering the US debt situation, our jeopardy of losing our borrowing rating,  out of control spending and the impact it is having on our economy and future generations.

What is happening in the stock market is no mystery. Out of control government spending, anti business, anti jobs growth policies are exacerbating an already gloomy economy and job market. Overlay that with financial crisis in Greece, Europe and pessimism in China and you have a recipe for a stock market retreat.

I do  not have a crystal ball. However, the November elections can do more than saving this country from ruin. Removing many jackasses will restore confidence in financial markets and alllow Congress to control spending and create jobs.

Let’s roll.

Arlen Specter loses, Rand Paul wins big, Blanche Lincoln in runoff, Democrats Tim Holden Larry Kissell Heath Shuler voted against health care, Fared well

Arlen Specter loses, Rand Paul wins big, Blanche Lincoln in runoff

From the Washington Post May 19, 2010.

“How (and why) Arlen Specter lost”

“1. Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter’s defeat at the hands of upstart Rep. Joe Sestak made him the second Senate incumbent to lose an intraparty battle in the 2010 elections — the largest number since four incumbents fell in 1980.

Specter’s loss will be endlessly examined (and then re-examined) in the days to come but, at its root, there were two main factors to blame for it: the perils of party switching and an anti-incumbent national environment.

Party switchers almost uniformly struggle the first time they are on the ballot after the switch. The party they abandoned detests them and will do anything to try to bring about their demise while the party they joined is distrustful of both their motives and loyalties.

Specter never seemed to adequately explain to Democrats why he switched parties — beyond the fact that it would allow him to be re-elected. Sestak, in what is the early frontrunner for ad of the year, brilliantly exploited Specter’s seeming lack of principle on the switch with a commercial that said the incumbent’s party switch was designed to “save one job…his…not yours.”

Specter’s inability to articulate why he had decided to go from “R” to “D” after spending nearly three decades on the GOP side was compounded by a strong sentiment among voters that the people they have been sending to Washington aren’t getting the job done and a course correction is required.

Specter, 80 years old and having spent five terms in the Senate, was a living and breathing embodiment of the traits that voters across the country seem fed up with these days. Sestak, again, brilliantly played to voters’ resentments about politics-as-usual — casting himself as a part of a “new generation” of leadership who could bring about real change.

While Specter’s defeat is somewhat unique due to his party switch, the loss will have considerable implications on how incumbents — in both parties — run their races moving forward this fall. Running with the establishment is clearly out; outsider messages are, ironically, in.”

3. Ophthalmologist Rand Paul’s (R) victory in Kentucky and Lt. Governor Bill Halter’s (D) pushing of Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) to a June 8 “runoff didn’t come as big surprises. More telling than the head-to-head battles in each state, however, is what the ballots cast reveal about voter intensity this cycle.

Paul’s win wasn’t just big — it was massive. With 99 percent of precincts reporting, Paul won with 59 percent of the vote, 24 points ahead of Secretary of State Trey Grayson (R). Over 350,000 voters took part in the GOP primary — all of them registered Republicans, given the state’s closed primary system. As Post pollster Jon Cohen notes, that’s the highest GOP primary turnout in at least twenty years with about one-third of registered Republicans casting ballots.”

“* Rep. Tim Holden, who voted against the party’s health care bill, won 66 percent to 34 percent against Sheila Dow Ford, an unknown and underfunded candidate. Holden joins Reps. Larry Kissell (D-N.C.) and Heath Shuler (D-N.C.) as Members who voted against health care and experienced similar primary results.”

Read more:

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/morning-fix/1-2-3-4.html

Jobless claims, May 13, 2010, US Department of Labor, Seasonally adjusted initial claims decrease 4000, Seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rises 12000, Emergency Unemployment Compensation claims decrease

Jobless claims, May 13, 2010, US Department of Labor

From the US Department of Labor, May 13, 2010.
“UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

          SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending May 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 444,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 448,000. The 4-week moving average was 450,500, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 459,500.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.6 percent for the week ending May 1, unchanged from the prior week’s unrevised rate of 3.6 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending May 1 was 4,627,000, an increase of 12,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 4,615,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,639,500, a decrease of 14,750 from the preceding week’s revised average of 4,654,250.

The fiscal year-to-date average of seasonally adjusted weekly insured unemployment, which corresponds to the appropriated AWIU trigger, was 5.174 million. 

UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 407,267 in the week ending May 8, an increase of 11,132 from the previous week. There were 570,412 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.5 percent during the week ending May 1, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 4,515,632, a decrease of 140,708 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 4.6 percent and the volume was 6,191,149.
Extended benefits were available in Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, and Wisconsin during the week ending April 24.

Initial claims for UI benefits by former Federal civilian employees totaled 1,300 in the week ending May 1, an increase of 86 from the prior week. There were 2,289 initial claims by newly discharged veterans, a decrease of 97 from the preceding week.

There were 18,944 former Federal civilian employees claiming UI benefits for the week ending April 24, a decrease of 267 from the previous week. Newly discharged veterans claiming benefits totaled 36,699, a decrease of 500 from the prior week.

States reported 5,137,385 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending April 24, a decrease of 216,874 from the prior week. There were 2,156,516 claimants in the comparable week in 2009. EUC weekly claims include first, second, third, and fourth tier activity.

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending April 24 were in Alaska (6.6 percent), Puerto Rico (6.3), Oregon (5.8), Nevada (5.1), California (4.9), Pennsylvania (4.8), Wisconsin (4.8), Montana (4.7), North Carolina (4.6), Rhode Island (4.6), Connecticut (4.5), and Idaho (4.5).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending May 1 were in New York (+4,021), Kentucky (+1,015), Pennsylvania (+773), Illinois (+611), and Tennessee (+609), while the largest decreases were in California (-18,546), Massachusetts (-3,628), Indiana (-3,242), Michigan (-1,748), and Florida
(-1,291).”

 http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm

Budget deficit widens, Largest April deficit ever, $82.7 billion shortfall, Record 19th straight monthly shortfall, Risk of higher interest rates

Budget deficit widens, Largest April deficit ever, $82.7 billion shortfall

From Bloomberg, May 12, 2010.

“Budget Deficit in U.S. Widened to $82.7 Billion in April”

“The U.S. reported a budget deficit for April, the second such shortfall since 1983 for the month that typically sees an increase in income tax payments.

The excess of spending over revenue rose to $82.7 billion last month compared with a $20.9 billion gap in April 2009, the Treasury Department said today in Washington. It was the largest April deficit ever and exceeded the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey.

April marked a record 19th straight monthly shortfall, highlighting the challenges facing the Obama administration. Deterioration in the government’s balance sheet in coming years raises the risk of higher interest rates even as an improving economy helps generate taxable income.

“We’re not going to see the deficit come down until economy gets healthier,” Gary Thayer, chief macro strategist at Wells Fargo Advisors LLC in St. Louis, said before the report. “We still have some important problems with the economy. There’s still a tendency by policy makers and lawmakers to address the problem with additional spending.”

The government’s April budget deficit compares with a median forecast of $57.9 billion, according to a Bloomberg survey of 30 economists. Projections ranged from deficits of $20 billion to $90 billion.”

“Revenue Declines

Revenue and other income fell 7.9 percent to $245.3 billion in April from $266.2 billion the same month last year, the Treasury said.”

“Spending for the entire government for April jumped 14.2 percent from the same month a year earlier to $328 billion.”
“The Obama administration forecasts a $1.6 trillion budget deficit in the current fiscal year that began Oct. 1. President Barack Obama’s debt commission met April 27, the first of a series of meetings aimed at producing a plan to reduce the deficit.

Administration officials and Democrats in Congress are looking to the commission for recommendations on reducing the federal debt, which is currently projected to reach 90 percent of the economy by 2020. Interest payments are forecast to quadruple to more than $900 billion annually by that year.”

Read more:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=agqhhoO8_cS0&pos=3