Obama Yellen Perez Big Brother, Distortions and lies aboout economy and jobs, Orwellian employment spin, Jobs added jobs lost, Labor force plummets, Obamacare and Obama economy cause part time jobs
“Over the last six months, of the net job creation, 97 percent of that is part-time work,”…Keith Hall, former BLS chief
“Nearly half of U.S. companies are reluctant to hire full-time employees because of the ACA. One in five firms indicates they are likely to hire fewer employees, and another one in 10 may lay off current employees in response to the law.
Other firms will shift toward part-time workers. More than 40 percent of CFOs say their companies will consider switching some jobs to less than 30 hours per week or targeting part-time workers for future employment.”…Duke University Fuqua School of Business December 11, 2013
“The Times of the nineteenth of December had published the official forecasts of the output of various classes of consumption goods in the fourth quarter of 1983, which was also the sixth quarter of the Ninth Three-Year Plan. Today’s issue contained a statement of the actual output, from which it appeared that the forecasts were in every instance grossly wrong. Winston’s job was to rectify the original figures by making them agree with the later ones. As for the third message, it referred to a very simple error which could be set right in a couple of minutes. As short a time ago as February, the Ministry of Plenty had issued a promise (a ‘categorical pledge’ were the official words) that there would be no reduction of the chocolate ration during 1984. Actually, as Winston was aware, the chocolate ration was to be reduced from thirty grammes to twenty at the end of the present week. All that was needed was to substitute for the original promise a warning that it would probably be necessary to reduce the ration at some time in April.”…George Orwell, “1984”
Of course jobs have been added over the past 5 years. Jobs have also been lost. The big story is the record drop in the labor force participation rate and the increase in part time jobs due to Obamacare and the Obama economy.
Obama, Janet Yellen and Labor Secretary Perez have used the best Orwellian linguistics to portray a dismal jobs situation as rosy.
Janet Yellen gave a speech yesterday.
Yellen talks out of both sides of her mouth.
From the transcript.
“Nearly five years into the expansion that began after the financial crisis and the Great Recession, the recovery has come a long way. More than 8 million jobs have been added to nonfarm payrolls since 2009, almost the same number lost as a result of the recession.”
“It is a sign of how far the economy has come that a return to full employment is, for the first time since the crisis, in the medium-term outlooks of many forecasters. It is a reminder of how far we have to go, however, that this long-awaited outcome is projected to be more than two years away.”
“The continued improvement in labor market conditions has been important in this judgment. The unemployment rate, at 6.7 percent, has fallen three-tenths of 1 percentage point since late last year. Broader measures of unemployment that include workers marginally attached to the labor force and those working part time for economic reasons have fallen a bit more than the headline unemployment rate, and labor force participation, which had been falling, has ticked up this year.”
“In sum, the central tendency of FOMC participant projections for the unemployment rate at the end of 2016 is 5.2 to 5.6 percent, and for inflation the central tendency is 1.7 to 2 percent. If this forecast was to become reality, the economy would be approaching what my colleagues and I view as maximum employment and price stability for the first time in nearly a decade. I find this baseline outlook quite plausible.”
“Other data suggest that there may be more slack in labor markets than indicated by the unemployment rate. For example, the share of the workforce that is working part time but would prefer to work full time remains quite high by historical standards. Similarly, while the share of workers in the labor force who are unemployed and have been looking for work for more than six months has fallen from its peak in 2010, it remains as high as any time prior to the Great Recession. There is ongoing debate about why long-term unemployment remains so high and the degree to which it might decline in a more robust economy. As I argued more fully in a recent speech, I believe that long-term unemployment might fall appreciably if economic conditions were stronger.
The low level of labor force participation may also signal additional slack that is not reflected in the headline unemployment rate. Participation would be expected to fall because of the aging of the population, but the decline steepened in the recovery. Although economists differ over what share of those currently outside the labor market might join or rejoin the labor force in a stronger economy, my own view is that some portion of the decline in participation likely represents labor market slack.”
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/text-of-janet-yellens-speech-2014-04-16?link=MW_latest_news
How about this gem.
“I believe that long-term unemployment might fall appreciably if economic conditions were stronger.”
Ya think?
Classic Obama lies from a speech yesterday in Oakdale, Pennsylvania.
“Now, we’ve spent the past five and a half years fighting back from the worst economic crisis in our lifetimes. The good news is our economy is growing again, our businesses are creating jobs. We’ve created nearly 9 million jobs over the past four years. We’ve cut our deficits by more than half. Our manufacturing sector that used to be losing jobs, just hemorrhaging jobs, is now adding jobs for the first time since the 1990s. (Applause.) The first time since the 1990s. High school dropout rates are going down. College attendance rates and graduation rates are going up. Our troops are coming home. (Applause.) We’re seeing an energy boom all across the country. And more than 7.5 million people have been able to sign up for health care, many for the very first time, through the Affordable Care Act. (Applause.) And 7.5 million people, by the way, is about the number that it would take to fill up Heinz Field 115 times.”
http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/04/16/remarks-president-and-vice-president-skills-training
From Citizen Wells April 7, 2014.
“The US Labor Dept. reported the March employment data on Friday April 4, 2014.
US Secretary of Labor Thomas E. Perez issued the following statement:
“Today’s report tells the story of a solid and steady economic recovery delivering more opportunity for more people. We saw 192,000 new jobs in the month of March, and the private sector has now created 8.9 million jobs over the last 49 consecutive months of employment growth. The unemployment rate held steady at 6.7 percent and is down from 7.5 percent a year ago.
“There is encouraging news across sectors. Health-care employment increased by 19,000 jobs. The average work week in manufacturing rebounded to 42.0 hours, tied for the highest mark since July 1945. Motor vehicle sales had their strongest month in seven years. At the height of the recession, there were six job seekers for every job available. Today, it’s two-and-a-half people competing for every open job.
“Without question, there is more still to do. On issues from infrastructure to immigration reform, from manufacturing to the minimum wage, there are steps Congress can take that will help more people punch their ticket to the middle class.
“For the 57th straight month (since the middle of 2009), at least one-third of jobless Americans have been unemployed for more than 27 weeks. So, priority number one must be for the House and Senate to extend emergency unemployment benefits that they irresponsibly allowed to expire more than three months ago, creating profound hardship for 2.3 million people. These benefits are a critical lifeline for job seekers struggling to get back on their feet; but they also act as a broader economic stimulus, putting money in people’s pockets and spurring consumer demand.
“The success of the Affordable Care Act is helping working families enjoy greater economic security, the peace of mind of knowing they won’t be wiped out by an injury or illness. The open enrollment period ended with 7.1 million people signing up for health coverage they didn’t have before. The ACA will help provide a shot in the arm to the economy, as people are free to start their own businesses and pursue entrepreneurial ventures now that their health insurance is no longer tied to their job.”
http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/opa/opa20140572.htm
The “1984″ analogy is obvious.
As most of you know, Obamacare is costing millions of Americans far more in healthcare premiums.
Despite the best linguistic efforts of Secretary Perez to put a positive spin on the impact of Obamacare, it is also impacting jobs.
From the Duke University Fuqua School of Business, December 11, 2013.
“——————————————-
DUKE UNIVERSITY NEWS
Duke University Office of News & Communications
http://www.dukenews.duke.edu
——————————————-
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Wednesday, Dec. 11, 2013
CONTACTS: Kevin Anselmo (Duke’s Fuqua School of Business)
(919) 660-7722
kevin.anselmo@duke.edu
or
David W. Owens (CFO Magazine)
(617) 790-3000
davidowens@cfo.com
CFO SURVEY: AFFORDABLE CARE ACT COULD CURTAIL HIRING
Note to editors: For additional comment, see contact information at the end of this release.
Watch professor John Graham discuss the results (or use this link
http://youtu.be/F4oj8d5F9Jo). You may also post this video on your website. Names of CFOs who took part in the survey and agreed to speak with media are available by request.
DURHAM, N.C. — A significant percentage of U.S. chief financial officers indicate that because of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), they may reduce employment growth at their firms and shift toward part-time workers.
A majority of finance chiefs also believe the full Social Security retirement age should be raised to help close the budget shortfall.
Despite these issues, underlying economic conditions are expected to improve in 2014 and, except in Europe, corporate charitable giving remains strong
These are some of the findings from the latest Duke University/CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook Survey, which concluded Dec. 5. The survey has been conducted for 71 consecutive quarters and spans the globe, making it the world’s longest running and most comprehensive research on senior finance executives. Presented results are for U.S. firms unless otherwise noted.
EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS OF THE AFFORDABLE CARE ACT
Nearly half of U.S. companies are reluctant to hire full-time employees because of the ACA.
One in five firms indicates they are likely to hire fewer employees, and another one in 10 may lay off current employees in response to the law.
Other firms will shift toward part-time workers. More than 40 percent of CFOs say their companies will consider switching some jobs to less than 30 hours per week or targeting part-time workers for future employment.”
Read more:
http://www.cfosurvey.org/14q1/PressRelease.pdf
From data provided by the US Labor Dept. we learn:
The Labor Force Participation Rate has dropped 2.5 percent since Obama took office in January 2009 and actually has dropped .1 percent the past year.
The number of people who could only find part time work has risen 1,055,000 since Obama took office and has risen 146,000 in the past year.
The only statement from Secretary Perez that reflects reality is:
“For the 57th straight month (since the middle of 2009), at least one-third of jobless Americans have been unemployed for more than 27 weeks.””
https://citizenwells.wordpress.com/2014/04/07/labor-secretary-perez-on-march-employment-numbers-fact-vs-fiction-solid-and-steady-economic-recovery-obamacare-helping-working-families-enjoy-greater-economic-security/
Citizen WElls 