Jan Hatzius Goldman “Fed Should Think About Easing”, Recent events have largely sealed the case against a rate hike next week, We expect modest downward revisions to GDP growth in 2016 and 2017 in light of tighter financial conditions

Jan Hatzius Goldman “Fed Should Think About Easing”, Recent events have largely sealed the case against a rate hike next week, We expect modest downward revisions to GDP growth in 2016 and 2017 in light of tighter financial conditions

“All of the employment gains among women since the recession hit in December 2007 have been taken by foreigners, even at a time when the numbers of U.S.-born women surged more than 600,000, according to new federal statistics.”…Washington Examiner August 7, 2015

“There’s no other way to say this. The official unemployment rate, which cruelly overlooks the suffering of the long-term and often permanently unemployed as well as the depressingly underemployed, amounts to a Big Lie.”…Gallup CEO Jim Clifton 

“We are being lied to on a scale unimaginable by George Orwell.”…Citizen Wells

 

 

Several months ago when I engaged in an email debate with Jan Hatzius of Goldman regarding the employment situation and impact of baby boomers, I came to the conclusion that he and other economists were too entrenched in the theoretical realm of economies to see the reality of the economy and employment in the US.

Are Jan Hatzius and Goldman finally facing a reality check on the real condition of the economy?

From Zero Hedge September 12, 2015.

“Is Yellen About To Shock Everyone: Goldman Says The “Fed Should Think About Easing””

“What a difference a little over a year makes.

Back in January 2014, just after the Fed announced the tapering of QE (because, you know, the “date-dependent” Fed would never be tapering if the economy wasn’t improving, right?) the propaganda machine went into overdrive, with Wall Street’s pet economist, not to mention the NY Fed’s key “outside advisor”, Goldman Jan Hatzius preaching that the long awaited recovery had finally arrived.

This is how the tabloid pseudo-finance website Business Insider characterized his call at the time: “Goldman’s top economist, Jan Hatzius, just said the words we’ve been wanting to hear for five years. He believes the economy is now growing at an above-trend pace.””

“For what it was worth, we disagreed with Hatzius, noting that this would simply be the second time in five years Goldman has jumped the “recovery” shark after its dramatic reversal in December 2010 when as QE 2 was ending, Goldman once again sought to boost wholesale confidence by going fundamentally bullish and saying “This outlook represents a fundamental shift in the thinking that has
governed our forecast for at least the last five years.”

Fast forward a little over a year when we learn that Goldman was once again wrong (for what it’s worth, naturally Business Insider was too).

First it was in April of 2015 – some 16 months after his “bold” prediction – that the same “above trend growth”-forecasting Hatzius said we “do not have much confidence in the inflation outlook and believe that the right policy would be to put hikes on hold for now.”

But… what happened to above trend growth?

Then in the first week of June, Hatzius once again hedged saying “Our forecast remains that the Fed policy committee will hike rates at the September meeting, but …this remains a close call. There is a strong risk management case for delaying liftoff.” In other words, the market determines Fed policy, not the economy, despite the reflexive lies to the opposite.

Then just two weeks later, on June 18, Hatzius having long given up on his “above trend growth” forecast changed his tune again, and now said he expected a December rate hike instead.

“In large part this reflects the fact that seven FOMC participants are now projecting zero or one rate hike this year, a group that we believe includes Fed Chair Janet Yellen…. We had viewed a clear signal for a September hike at the June meeting as close to a necessary condition for the FOMC to actually hike in September, because we did not believe that the FOMC would want to surprise markets on the hawkish side when they raise the funds rate.”

Of course, if the economy had grown at an “above trend pace” since his January 2014 call, the Fed would have to be at 1% or higher by now.

Just to make sure nobody is surprised next week when Yellen does not hike and unleashes a massive relief rally, Hatzius added that a September rate hike announcement this Thursday “shouldn’t be close”, and as we showed previously, unveiled 7 reasons why. Amazing how Goldman’s narrative changes with every month.

And then, the humiliation was complete last night when the same Jan Hatzius, having long-forgotten his January 2014 prediction, in a note previewing the US economy in “September and Beyond” had this to say:

In our view, the recent events have largely sealed the case against a rate hike next week. Fed officials have made clear that “data dependent” policy refers to incoming economic news as well as factors that could impinge on the outlook—including changes in financial conditions…. The news on wage and price inflation, however, has been softer than generally expected a few months ago…. most of the inflation shortfall relative to the Fed’s 2% target is due to more persistent factors, including continued labor market slack.

We expect modest downward revisions to GDP growth in 2016 and 2017 in light of tighter financial conditions.
Hm… maybe Jan meant below-trend growth?

And here we get to the punchline, because Goldman which originally expected a September rate hike, then pushed it to December in June, is now fairly confident that there may not be a 2015 rate hike at all!”

Read more:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-12/yellen-about-shock-everyone-goldman-says-fed-should-think-about-easing

As reported at Citizen Wells September 4, 2015, white employment is down 132,000 since January 2015.

https://citizenwells.com/2015/09/04/us-labor-dept-employment-charts-reveal-no-jobs-recovery-for-native-born-americans-september-4-2015-low-wage-part-time-jobs-going-to-immigrants-business-insider-warning-from-2011-economic-flows-p/

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10 responses to “Jan Hatzius Goldman “Fed Should Think About Easing”, Recent events have largely sealed the case against a rate hike next week, We expect modest downward revisions to GDP growth in 2016 and 2017 in light of tighter financial conditions

  1. Good afternoon CW et al.

    Hi ya Old salt and others.

    Pertaining to the easing, QE1, 2 and 3 was finally admitted it did absolutely nothing for the economy as predicted prior to such suggestions. It’s never worked in the past with any economy, and it never will. Now we have an over inflated artificial bubble that will pop. What will trigger it’s burst will soon be seen.

  2. William……
    Nice to hear from you once again! Watcha been up to? Hey guy when our BUBBLE BURSTS, it will make a nuke seem like a lady finger. Hope you ,and your family are ready…………it will be a living HELL……….and you will have to be ready to put a bullet in ANYBODY, because ANYBODY, and perhaps EVERYBODY will come from left field…….or from behind you. Soon be time to return to the rule of the HOGLEG ………which will be a positive solution to a lot of things……….especially when some bastard attacks you in an attempt to rip off the loaf of bread you are carrying.


  3. I don’t think anyone has any questions on this one…..

  4. William……..
    personally I see nothing in the future except a slow steady deterioration to our GDP. The more companies go offshore, and other companies are forced by a $15.00 hourly pay for an UNEDUCATED NOSE PICKING, STINKING A$$ED, MORON……..WILL FORCE MANY MARGINAL COMPANIES TO EITHER START INVESTING MORE HEAVILY IN ROBOTICS, OR JUST CLOSE THEIR DOORS. I would be a believer in the latter. Goodbye Mickey Dee, and Booger King franchise operators, whose employees will be saying HELLO STREET!……..HELZ-A-COMIN!

  5. A contain was taken from a ship that docked in Greece that was labeled “AID FOR THE REFUGEES”…….

    Did it contain food ?….NO
    Did it contain medicine…NO
    Did it contain blankets and clothing…NO
    Well what did it contain ?……..the containers were full of weapons !

    NOW WHY WOULD THOSE POOR REFUGEES NEED WEAPONS ?

    I hope Anglia Merkel watches this video and become very afraid…..

    HOW MUCH MORE PROOF DOES IT TAKE ? HOW MUCH MORE TERROR MUST THE WORLD ENDURE?

  6. ………….EVERYONE CAN BE SURE ,…..when all fast food companies are gone from New York DeBlasio will be smiling from EAR TO EAR as he signs the 100,000 new welfare checks each month. He thinks that welfare is the solution. What he will discover that it will push New York into becoming another Baltimore.

  7. WATCH THE SECOND VIDEO I JUST POSTED THEN TELL ME THERE…
    ISN’T A… W A R… COMING TO THE ENTIRE WORLD…..

  8. oldsoldier79……..
    ……….I think that you are correct sir. Sadly we are witnessing the mass movement of what is THOUGHT TO BE millions of REFUGEES into Europe, but with out a doubt that movement also contains THOUSANDS of GOAT SCREWERS who are hell bent upon forcing their 4th century Islamic SHI# upon the entire world. I have said several times in the past that a united world force of Christians must eventually occur, and they must unleash such a deafening explosion of retribution upon the Muslims that the Crusades will look like playing children by comparison. Yes probably thousands, if not millions will die as a result. At some point Christianity MUST TAKE A STAND. Christianity MUST FIELD a WELL TRAINED, and well equipped army led by well trained fighting men by the millions. If Christianity is to survive the Muslim onslaught they MUST TAKE THE OFFENSIVE. Otherwise Christianity is already dead.

  9. oldsailor83……

    It’s time for…. …”FIFTH and last…..CRUSADE”…

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