Category Archives: Unemployment

MarketWatch.com and NC Governor Pat McCrory fail to present true employment in North Carolina, January unemployment rate 9.5 percent, Fewer employed in November, Labor force participation rate plummeted

MarketWatch.com and NC Governor Pat McCrory fail to present true employment in North Carolina, January unemployment rate 9.5 percent, Fewer employed in November, Labor force participation rate plummeted

“You can’t fix a problem unless you acknowledge and understand it.”…Citizen Wells

“11.4%: What the U.S. unemployment rate would be if labor force participation were back to January 2008 levels.” …James Pethokoukis, American Enterprise Institute, June 2013

“Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.”…George Orwell, “1984″

 

 

The unemployment rate in North Carolina in January was 9.5 percent.

There were more people employed in NC in January than November.

From MarketWatch.com January 8, 2014.

“What happens when jobless benefits are cut? North Carolina may offer clues”
“Last summer, North Carolina slashed the amount of cash it gave to people after they lost their jobs and the state also reduced the number of weeks they could receive benefits. Within several months, the unemployment rate fell a few ticks and by November it fell to a five-year low.”

“As a result, some 70,000 North Carolinians lost out on extra federal benefits at the end of last June.

So what happened? North Carolina’s jobless rate rose a notch to 8.9% in July and then began a steady descent: 8.7% in August, 8.3% in September, 8.0% in October and a preliminary 7.4% in November, according to U.S. Labor Department figures.

That’s the lowest rate since late 2008, though monthly numbers are prone to sharp revisions.

Government data also shows that more than 22,000 North Carolinians found work since the cutoff and the number of unemployed sank by nearly 73,000 to 344,000.

What the data doesn’t tell us, however, is what happened to all the people no longer classified as unemployed. While some found a job, others may have retired, ended up on welfare, moved in with family members, sought disability payments or fled to a nearby state with better benefits. We just don’t know.”

Read more:

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/capitolreport/2014/01/08/what-happens-when-jobless-benefits-are-cut-north-carolina-may-offer-clues/

From the Greensboro News Record January 7, 2014.

““We had the highest tax rates in the Southeast,” McCrory said. “… We think this tax reform, which lowered your corporate tax rates and lowered your income tax rate, will help existing businesses grow and help in the recruitment of new businesses and we’re already seeing a very positive impact.””
“McCrory cited the 2 percentage point drop in the state’s unemployment rate since he took office last January as evidence of the success of his administration’s agenda.”

Read more:

http://www.news-record.com/news/north_carolina_ap/article_fe4eeb5a-9ccf-57d7-b50b-6265f99285cc.html

From Citizen Wells December 22, 2013.

“I expect orwellian employment reporting from the Obama controlled US Government. I am less inclined to expect the same from the state of NC.

The unemployment rate fell from 9.5 percent in January to 7.4 percent in November. Yet there were fewer people employed in November than January.”

Why is the following not being reported?

In January of 2013 there were 4,322,922 people employed.

In November of 2013 there were 4,314,502 people employed.

The labor force participation rate plummeted from 63.4 percent to 61.3 percent in the same period.

http://esesc23.esc.state.nc.us/d4/LausSelection.aspx

https://citizenwells.wordpress.com/2013/12/22/nc-employment-november-2013-fact-vs-fiction-unemployment-rate-drops-from-9-5-to-7-4-percent-jan-to-nov-2013-fewer-working-in-nov-than-jan-labor-force-participation-rate-plummets/

 

US employment crisis, Lowest labor force participation rate in over 3 decades, 55 and older staying in labor force, 16 to 19 rates plunge, 18 to 34 olds double digit unemployment rates

US employment crisis, Lowest labor force participation rate in over 3 decades, 55 and older staying in labor force, 16 to 19 rates plunge, 18 to 34 olds double digit unemployment rates

“People 55 to 64 years old, the first forget-about-retirement generation, are staying in the labor force to an ever greater degree. In 1992, only 56.2% were still in the labor force, in 2012, 64.5% were. Similar for older folks. The participation rate for people 65 to 74 years old jumped from 16.3% to 26.8%. Reality is this: fewer people can afford to retire.”…Zero Hedge January 8, 2014

“11.4%: What the U.S. unemployment rate would be if labor force participation were back to January 2008 levels.” …James Pethokoukis, American Enterprise Institute, June 2013

“Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.”…George Orwell, “1984″

Readers of Citizen Wells are aware of the true employment picture in the US.

Here is a revealing article from Zero Hedge January 8, 2014.

“This Chart Is A True Representation Of The Employment Crisis In This Country”

“The civilian labor force in the US has been causing bouts of hand-wringing and head-scratching. It represents the official number of people working or looking for work. It’s what the officialunemployment rate (U-3) is based on. If labor force participation drops – if for whatever reason, millions of people are no longer counted as part of the labor force, as is the case in the US – it’s a troublesome indicator for the economy and the real employment picture.

It also makes the unemployment rate, now 7.3%, look a lot less awful: if you’re not counted in the labor force, and you don’t have a job, you’re not counted as unemployed. There are millions of people in that category. And their numbers are growing, not diminishing.

“The irony of the U-3 unemployment statistic is the fact that while unemployment has gone down 30% since its 2009 peak, we have the lowest labor force participation rate in over 3 decades,” observed Ralph Dillon, Vice President at Global Financial Data, in an email. “The markets and politicians celebrate the official unemployment rate, but you have to be concerned with the trend that is most indicative of the health of the employment situation in this country: the downward trend of those who want to work and can’t.””

“The chart (Global Financial Data) juxtaposes the unemployment rate and the labor force participation rate since 1980. After the financial crisis, suddenly, for the first time in history, they both started moving in lockstep. Downward.

““This chart is a true representation of the crisis of employment in this country,” Dillon wrote. The diminishing labor force participation rate – the officially available labor pool, however unrealistic it might be – has been driving down the unemployment rate for the first time in history.”

People 55 to 64 years old, the first forget-about-retirement generation, are staying in the labor force to an ever greater degree. In 1992, only 56.2% were still in the labor force, in 2012, 64.5% were. Similar for older folks. The participation rate for people 65 to 74 years old jumped from 16.3% to 26.8%. Reality is this: fewer people can afford to retire.

But who is not making it into the labor force? Young folks. The participation rate for those 16 to 19 has plunged from 51.3% in 1992 to 34.3% in 2012. OK, the BLS explains that by an increase in school attendance, and that would be a good thing. But the 25 to 54 year olds? Even among them, participation rates dropped from 83.3% in 2002 to 81.4% a decade later.

Among the 18 to 34 year old “Millennials,” those lucky ones who’re official counted in the labor force, unemployment has been a nightmare, with double digit unemployment rates, still, nearly 6 years after the financial crisis, reported the youth advocacy group Young Invincibles. It’s even worse for the 16 to 24 year olds, whose official unemployment rate is still 15%!”

Read more:

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2014-01-08/%E2%80%9C-chart-true-representation-employment-crisis-country%E2%80%9D

Duke University study Obamacare impacts full time hiring, Fuqua School of Business, December 11, 2013, Nearly half of companies reluctant to hire full time employees, Shift to part time workers

Duke University study Obamacare impacts full time hiring, Fuqua School of Business, December 11, 2013, Nearly half of companies reluctant to hire full time employees, Shift to part time workers

“Over the last six months, of the net job creation, 97 percent of that is part-time work,”…Keith Hall, former BLS chief

“Nearly half of U.S. companies are reluctant to hire full-time employees because of the ACA. One in five firms indicates they are likely to hire fewer employees, and another one in 10 may lay off current employees in response to the law.

Other firms will shift toward part-time workers. More than 40 percent of CFOs say their companies will consider switching some jobs to less than 30 hours per week or targeting part-time workers for future employment.”…Duke University Fuqua School of Business December 11, 2013

“Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.”…George Orwell, “1984″

 

 

From the Duke University Fuqua School of Business, December 11, 2013.

“——————————————-
DUKE UNIVERSITY NEWS
Duke University Office of News & Communications
http://www.dukenews.duke.edu
——————————————-

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Wednesday, Dec. 11, 2013
CONTACTS: Kevin Anselmo (Duke’s Fuqua School of Business)
(919) 660-7722
kevin.anselmo@duke.edu
or
David W. Owens (CFO Magazine)
(617) 790-3000
davidowens@cfo.com

CFO SURVEY: AFFORDABLE CARE ACT COULD CURTAIL HIRING

Note to editors: For additional comment, see contact information at the end of this release.
Watch professor John Graham discuss the results (or use this link
http://youtu.be/F4oj8d5F9Jo). You may also post this video on your website. Names of CFOs who took part in the survey and agreed to speak with media are available by request.

DURHAM, N.C. — A significant percentage of U.S. chief financial officers indicate that because of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), they may reduce employment growth at their firms and shift toward part-time workers.

A majority of finance chiefs also believe the full Social Security retirement age should be raised to help close the budget shortfall.

Despite these issues, underlying economic conditions are expected to improve in 2014 and, except in Europe, corporate charitable giving remains strong

These are some of the findings from the latest Duke University/CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook Survey, which concluded Dec. 5. The survey has been conducted for 71 consecutive quarters and spans the globe, making it the world’s longest running and most comprehensive research on senior finance executives. Presented results are for U.S. firms unless otherwise noted.

EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS OF THE AFFORDABLE CARE ACT

Nearly half of U.S. companies are reluctant to hire full-time employees because of the ACA.
One in five firms indicates they are likely to hire fewer employees, and another one in 10 may lay off current employees in response to the law.

Other firms will shift toward part-time workers. More than 40 percent of CFOs say their companies will consider switching some jobs to less than 30 hours per week or targeting part-time workers for future employment.”

Read more:

http://www.cfosurvey.org/14q1/PressRelease.pdf

 

NC unemployment rate drops due to labor force exodus, Greensboro News Record accurate report, November 22, 2013, 8 percent unemployment rate, Labor force participation rate plummets 2 percent this year

NC unemployment rate drops due to labor force exodus, Greensboro News Record accurate report, November 22, 2013, 8 percent unemployment rate, Labor force participation rate plummets 2 percent this year

“11.4%: What the U.S. unemployment rate would be if labor force participation were back to January 2008 levels.” …James Pethokoukis, American Enterprise Institute, June 2013

“In the Triad, a number of studies have ranked the area among the nation’s worst in terms of poverty and food hardship.”

““You have the people that were barely making it with 40 hours. Now, they’re below 30 hours and have the same household bills,” Sturdivant said. “And at the end of the day, if they go out and get another part-time job, they still won’t have insurance.””...Greensboro News Record September 2, 2013

“Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.”…George Orwell, “1984″

 

I heard a radio report yesterday misportray the drop in the NC unemployment rate to 8 percent as good news.

I was pleased to read that the Greensboro News Record provided an accurate report of the dismal jobs situation in NC.

From the News Record November 22, 2013.

“Unemployment rate drops, but fewer N.C. residents are working than a year ago”

“North Carolina’s unemployment rate fell to an even 8 percent in October, which makes for a positive headline.

But there’s a gloomier underside.
Total employment, according to “smoothed seasonally adjusted” numbers, was down from a year earlier, when the unemployment rate was 9.4 percent.

How could that be? Our labor force keeps shrinking. It’s smaller by 77,429, the N.C. Department of Commerce reports.”

“Addendum: “The state’s labor force participation rate — a key measure of labor utilization — fell steadily over that time to the lowest monthly figure recorded at any point since 1976,” John Quinterno says.”

Read more:

http://www.news-record.com/blogs/clark_off_the_record/article_4ba8cf74-539e-11e3-aeb0-001a4bcf6878.html

The labor force participation rate has fallen 2 percent this year!

The unemployment rate has dropped 1.5 percent.

You do the math.

http://esesc23.esc.state.nc.us/d4/LausSelection.aspx

BLS October 2012 jobs numbers faked by Obama controlled Census Bureau, .3 percent plunge, Reliable Sources claim, Employee told to make up information from higher up

BLS October 2012 jobs numbers faked by Obama controlled Census Bureau, .3 percent plunge, Reliable Sources claim, Employee told to make up information from higher up

“President Obama said in his inaugural address that he planned to “restore science to its rightful place” in government. That’s a worthy goal. But statisticians at the Commerce Department didn’t think it would mean having the director of next year’s Census report directly to the White House rather than to the Commerce secretary, as is customary. “There’s only one reason to have that high level of White House involvement,” a career professional at the Census Bureau tells me. “And it’s called politics, not science.””
“The Bureau of Labor Statistics also uses the Census to prepare the economic data that so much of business relies upon. “If the original numbers aren’t as hard as possible, the uses they’re put to get fuzzier and fuzzier,” says Bruce Chapman, who was director of the Census in the 1980s.”…WSJ February 10, 2009

“With a 63.7% labor force participation, “conditions in the labor market are considerably worse than indicated” in July’s report”…economist Joshua Shapiro, WSJ August 3, 2012

“Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.”…George Orwell, “1984″

 

From the NY Post November 18, 2013.

“Census ‘faked’ 2012 election jobs report”

“In the home stretch of the 2012 presidential campaign, from August to September, the unemployment rate fell sharply — raising eyebrows from Wall Street to Washington.

The decline — from 8.1 percent in August to 7.8 percent in September — might not have been all it seemed. The numbers, according to a reliable source, were manipulated.

And the Census Bureau, which does the unemployment survey, knew it.

Just two years before the presidential election, the Census Bureau had caught an employee fabricating data that went into the unemployment report, which is one of the most closely watched measures of the economy.

And a knowledgeable source says the deception went beyond that one employee — that it escalated at the time President Obama was seeking reelection in 2012 and continues today.

“He’s not the only one,” said the source, who asked to remain anonymous for now but is willing to talk with the Labor Department and Congress if asked.

The Census employee caught faking the results is Julius Buckmon, according to confidential Census documents obtained by The Post. Buckmon told me in an interview this past weekend that he was told to make up information by higher-ups at Census.”

“I’ve been suspicious of the Census Bureau for a long time.

During the 2010 Census report — an enormous and costly survey of the entire country that goes on for a full year — I suspected (and wrote in a number of columns) that Census was inexplicably hiring and firing temporary workers.

I suspected that this turnover of employees was being done purposely to boost the number of new jobs being report each month. (The Labor Department does not use the Census Bureau for its other monthly survey of new jobs — commonly referred to as the Establishment Survey.)

Last week I offered to give all the information I have, including names, dates and charges to Labor’s inspector general.
I’m waiting to hear back from Labor.

I hope the next stop will be Congress, since manipulation of data like this not only gives voters the wrong impression of the economy but also leads lawmakers, the Federal Reserve and companies to make uninformed decisions.

To cite just one instance, the Fed is targeting the curtailment of its so-called quantitative easing money-printing/bond-buying fiasco to the unemployment rate for which Census provided the false information.

So falsifying this would, in essence, have dire consequences for the country.”

Read more:

http://nypost.com/2013/11/18/census-faked-2012-election-jobs-report/

From Citizen Wells  November 3, 2012.

US employers added 171,000 jobs in October. Whoopie!

Did they mention the planned almost almost 48,000 job cuts. Or the other job losses or the average work week?

The stated unemployment rate of 7.9 percent is nothing to write home about either. Especially since the U6 rate, which includes those still seeking employment, is 14.6 percent.

From One News Now November 2, 2012.

“Unemployment rate number labeled ‘deceptive’”
“The October unemployment rate inched up to 7.9 percent from 7.8 percent in September. But Dan Celia of Financial Issues Stewardship Ministries continues to insist this final pre-election look at the job figures is fictitious.

At the same time, U.S. employers added 171,000 jobs in October and hiring was stronger over the previous two months than first thought.

The Labor Department’s last look at hiring before Tuesday’s election sketched a picture of a job market that is gradually gaining momentum after nearly stalling in the spring. However, it is the highest unemployment rate of any incumbent president since Franklin D. Roosevelt.

Meanwhile, Mitt Romney says the one-tenth-of-a-point increase in the unemployment rate to 7.9 percent is, quote, “a sad reminder that the economy is at a virtual standstill.””

“Dan Celia of Financial Issues Stewardship Ministries continues to insist this final pre-election look at the job figures is fictitious.

“I will remain in the camp — until I can have proven to me mathematically otherwise — that a 7.9-percent unemployment rate is a ridiculously fabricated, deceptive number about the unemployment rate,” he says. “We still have nowhere near those in the labor participation rate that we had in January of 2009, nothing close to it. It did go up, as would stand to reason; it went up two-tenths of one percent. That only means that it must have gone up a lot more than that …. I’m really being cynical here, but [they] couldn’t control it or spin it, so they had to add at least two-tenths of one percent, [which is] one of the reasons why unemployment went up to 7.9 percent.”

CeliaLong-term unemployment, according to Celia, still remains high.

“The U6 unemployment rate, that is the number of unemployment [plus] those still looking for jobs, is 14.6 percent,” he explains. “It did go down one-tenth of one percent. [But] there are still 23 million people struggling to find a job. There’s an 8-million job gap … between what the president said we would have at this time, compared to what we really have …. [That’s a] gap that I’m sure you’re not going to hear anyone talk about.”

He also predicts another aspect of the unemployment picture that likely will not be talked about very much.

“One of the big numbers here this week, today, was that hours worked per week did not change [dramatically]. It went down a tick [to] 34.4 hours per week,” he notes. “That is not a good forward-looking number, and that is some cause for concern.”

And what about the number of new jobs reported Friday?

“We are still staying on track of consistently adding close to 150,000 private sector jobs per month, which by the way this year is consistent with a do-nothing, just under two-percent GDP growth. That’s consistent. That’s about where it ought to be,” he offers.

“[But] just so you know, we need about 350,000 [new private sector jobs] average per month to really have any kind of a growing economy — which, by the way, is impossible to have in a two-percent GDP growth.””

http://onenewsnow.com//ap/politics/unemployment-rate-inches-up-again

From Market Watch November 1, 2012.

“Planned layoffs jump up in October: Challenger”

“Led by the automotive sector, planned job cuts jumped up 41% in October to almost 48,000, the highest level since May, outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas said Thursday. “The final three months of the year tend to see heavier downsizing activity as companies make year-end adjustments to meet earnings goals and to prepare for the new year,” said John Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas. “Certainly, the deluge of weak third-quarter earnings reports that resulted from declining sales here and abroad does not bode well for workers as 2013 approaches.” Job cuts in October were up 12% from last year.”

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/planned-layoffs-jump-up-in-october-challenger-2012-11-01

From GOPUSA October 31, 2012.

“Malkin: The Obama Layoff Bomb”

“In June, a diffident and self-deluded President Obama claimed that “the private sector is doing fine.” Last week, the private sector responded: Speak for yourself, buster. Who needs an “October Surprise” when the business headlines are broadcasting the imminent layoff bomb in neon lights?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported last Tuesday that employers issued 1,316 “mass layoff actions” (affecting 50 workers or more) in September; more than 122,000 workers were affected overall. USA Today financial reporter Matt Krantz wrote that “(m)uch of the recent layoff activity is connected to what’s been the slowest period of earnings growth since the third quarter of 2009.” Some necessary restructuring is underway in response to the stagnant European economy. But more and more U.S. businesses are putting the blame — bravely and squarely — right where it belongs: on the obstructionist policies and regulatory schemes of the blame-shifter-in-chief.

Last week, Ohio-based auto parts manufacturer Dana Holding Corp. warned employees of potential layoffs amid “looming concern” about the economy. President and CEO Roger Wood specifically mentioned the walloping burden of “increasing taxes on small businesses” and the need to “offset increased costs that are placed on us through new laws and regulations.”

Case in point: Obamacare. The mandate will cost Dana Holding Corp., which employs some 24,500 workers, “approximately $24 million over the next six years in additional U.S. health care expenses.” As Ohio Watchdog blogger Maggie Thurber reported, the firm’s Toledo area corporate offices laid off seven white-collar employees last Friday; company insiders told her more were on the way. They are not alone.

On Tuesday, Consol Energy issued a federally mandated layoff disclosure announcing its “intent to idle its Miller Creek surface operations near Naugatuck, W.Va.” The move will affect the company’s Wiley Surface Mine, Wiley Creek Surface Mine, Minway Surface Mine, Minway Preparation Plant and Miller Creek Administration Group, all in Mingo County, W.Va. Despite state approval, cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and myriad other agencies, and a stellar safety record, Obama’s EPA dragged its feet on the permit approval process. The impasse has forced layoffs of 145 Consol Energy employees that will hit at the end of the year. They are not alone.

In August, Robert E. Murray, founder and CEO of Murray Energy Corporation in Ohio, blasted the White House anti-coal agenda for the layoffs and closure of his company’s mine. He told Obama water-carrying CNN anchor Soledad O’Brien that “the many regulations that (Obama) and his radical appointees and the U.S. EPA have put on the use of coal, there are dozens of them and collectively by his own energy administration, have closed 175 power plants.” As O’Brien barked at her guest about purported environmental objections, Murray explained that “we cannot get permits for these mines. They are delaying the issuance of permits. If you can’t get the permit, you can’t have the mine. … I created those jobs, and I put the investment in that mine. And when it came time to lay the people off, I went up personally and talked to every one of them myself to lay them off. It’s a human issue.”

And it’s an innovation issue, too. As I reported in February, Obamacare’s impending 2.3 percent medical device excise tax has already wrought havoc on the industry:

Stryker, a maker of artificial hips and knees based in Kalamazoo, Mich., is slashing 5 percent of its global workforce (an estimated 1,000 workers) this coming year to reduce costs related to Obamacare’s taxes and mandates.

Covidien, a N.Y.-based surgical supplies manufacturer, recently announced layoffs of 200 American workers and plans to move some of its plant work to Mexico and Costa Rica, in part because of the coming tax hit.

Mass.-based Zoll Medical Corp., which makes defibrillators and employs some 1,800 workers in the U.S. and around the world, says the medical device tax will cost the company between $5 million and $10 million a year.

This July, Indiana’s Cook Medical Inc. shelved plans to open five new plants because of the imminent medical device tax hit. They are not alone.

The heads of Koch Industries, Westgate Resorts and ASG Software Solutions have all separately informed their employees of prosperity-undermining Obama economic politics. Left-wing groups have lambasted the executives for exercising their political free speech.

But they have remained silent while the White House corruptocrats bribed federal defense contractors into delaying federally mandated layoff disclosures before the election. In a memo now being investigated on Capitol Hill, Obama promised to cover the legal fees of Lockheed Martin and other defense contractors if they ignored legal requirements to inform workers in advance about so-called sequestration cuts to the military’s budget scheduled to kick in next year.

Truth suppression is a time-honored Obama tactic, of course. Remember: The administration and its Democratic allies on Capitol Hill attempted to punish Deere, Caterpillar, Verizon and ATT in 2010 for disclosing how the costs of Obamacare taxes were hitting their bottom lines — even though they were simply following SEC disclosure requirements. The White House also tried to silence insurers who dared to inform their customers about how Obamacare was driving up premiums. Not this time.

The administration’s bully boys don’t have enough whitewash and duct tape to cover up the past, present and future devastation of the president and his economic demolition team.”

http://www.gopusa.com/commentary/2012/10/31/malkin-the-obama-layoff-bomb/?subscriber=1

https://citizenwells.wordpress.com/2012/11/03/obama-jobs-data-november-3-2012-7-9-percent-unemployment-record-high-14-6-percent-actual-jobs-gained-jobs-lost-net-far-below-needed-obama-layoff-bomb/

Washington Post lies about baby boomer impact on labor force participation rate, More young people enter job market than retire, Older folks continue working, Intentional lie sloppy reporting or cover for Obama?

Washington Post lies about baby boomer impact on labor force participation rate, More young people enter job market than retire, Older folks continue working, Intentional lie sloppy reporting
or cover for Obama?

“11.4%: What the U.S. unemployment rate would be if labor force participation were back to January 2008 levels.” …James Pethokoukis, American Enterprise Institute, June 2013

“The “real” unemployment rate rose from 13.6% in September to 13.8% in October, according to figures released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics”…CNS News November 8, 2013

“Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.”…George Orwell, “1984″

Is the repeated emphasis by the Washington Post on the impact of baby boomers on the plummeting  force participation rate an intentional lie or just sloppy or biased reporting?

Intentional or not it is a lie.

Citizen Wells first criticized the Washington Post on May 9, 2012 for this false report.

“The Washington Post on May 4, 2012 posted a very misleading article titled “The incredible shrinking labor force.” Is this another example of sloppy or biased journalism or both?”

“The verbage in the top right corner looked suspicious, ”As the most recent recession hits the workforce, larger numbers of baby boomers begin to retire.” Yesterday I called the Bureau of Labor Statistics and discovered that they had not placed those words there. It was the work of the Washington Post.

So why did the Post superimpose that wording about baby boomers on the graph?”

“Critics of the Obama administration have been quick to seize on this as the real reason for the falling unemployment rate. In February, the Republican National Committee released a research note on “The Missing Worker,” arguing that “over 3 million unemployed workers have called it quits due to Obamanomics.”

Economists say the story is considerably more complicated. For one thing, the trend predates President Obama. And while part of the story is clearly that the labor force is shrinking because the bad economy is driving workers out, another significant factor is that baby boomers are beginning to retire early — a trend that has worrying implications for future growth.”
“But a number of economists are arguing that the recession is distracting people from the real story — long-run demographic trends that have nothing to do with the current economy. Baby boomers are starting to retire en masse, which means that there are fewer eligible American workers.”

https://citizenwells.wordpress.com/2012/05/09/washington-post-misrepresents-labor-force-participation-rate-unemployment-rate-blamed-on-baby-boomers-selective-quoting-post-receives-4-orwells/

On September 6, 2013 the Washington Post reported.

“So why is the labor force dropping? There are a couple big factors going on here. Older Americans are retiring, younger Americans are going back to school, and many workers have been discouraged by the weak U.S. economy. Here’s an updated breakdown:

1) The aging of America. One big reason the participation rate dropped involves long-run demographic trends that have nothing to do with the current economy. Baby boomers are starting to retire en masse, which means that there are fewer eligible American workers.

Demographics have always played a big role in the rise and fall of the labor force. Between 1960 and 2000, the labor force in the United States surged from 59 percent to a peak of 67.3 percent. That was largely due to the fact that more women were entering the labor force while improvements in health and information technology allowed Americans to work more years.

But since 2000, the labor force rate has been steadily declining as the baby-boom generation has been retiring.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/09/06/the-incredible-shrinking-labor-force-again/

On November 8, 2013 the Washington Post once again listed older workers retiring first as a cause of the drop. They did, however, add some clarification as if to back off of their position.

“So what’s up with that broader trend? Why has the participation rate been dropping in recent years? There are a couple big factors going on here. Older Americans are retiring, younger Americans are going back to school, and many workers have been discouraged by the weak U.S. economy. Here’s an updated breakdown:

1) The aging of America. One big reason the participation rate dropped involves long-run demographic trends that have little to do with the current economy. Baby boomers are starting to retire en masse, which means that there are fewer eligible American workers.

Demographics have always played a big role in the rise and fall of the labor force. Between 1960 and 2000, the labor force in the United States surged from 59 percent to a peak of 67.3 percent. That was largely due to the fact that more women were entering the labor force while improvements in health and information technology allowed Americans to work more years.

But since 2000, the labor force rate has been declining steadily as the baby-boom generation has been retiring. ”

“So what’s going on? One theory is that the weak job market is causing people to simply give up looking for work — they’re crumpling up their resumes and going home. A recent paper (pdf) from the Boston Fed suggested that these “non-inevitable dropouts” might even account for the bulk of the decline.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/11/08/the-u-s-labor-force-is-still-shrinking-rapidly-heres-why/

I am going to make this real simple.

Let’s ignore immigrants increasing our work force for the moment.

The baby boomer generation is known for it’s size. However, due to the growth in the US, recent generations are even larger.

Let’s take the example of those turning 65 in 2014, born in 1949 and those turning 22 in 2014, born in 1992. I chose age 22 to account for college even though some of them entered the work force earlier, if they could find a job.

There were  3.56 million people born in the US in 1949. 85 % or 3.026 million are alive.

There were 4.08 million people born in 1992. Probably at least 4 million still alive.

Let’ assume that all of the people who turn 65 next year retire.

That is still a net gain of about a million potential workers.

As we all know, all of those people do not stop working unless they cannot find a job.

From the CBO.

“The resulting rise in the projected rates of labor force participation for older people is noteworthy. For men ages 62 to 64, CBO projects that the rate of labor force participation will rise from about 52 percent in 2012 to about 55 percent in 2022. For men ages 65 to 69, the projected rate rises from about 37 percent in 2012 to about 41 percent in 2022. The changes for women are similar: The projected rate of labor force participation for women ages 62 to 64 rises from about 44 percent to about 48 percent, and for women ages 65 to 69, the projected rate increases from about 28 percent to about 32 percent. In 2022, the FRA will be 67 only for people age 62 or younger in that year. As that group ages and the FRA gradually becomes 67 for all older people, CBO projects that the labor force participation rate for older people will continue to increase, although at a slower pace.”

http://www.cbo.gov/publication/43834

That’s right. You read it correctly.

Men ages 62 to 64:  rate of labor force participation  about 52 percent in 2012.

Men ages 65 to 69:   37 percent in 2012.

Once again I am compelled to award the Washington Post 4 Orwells.

Jobs report November 8, 2013, AP and mainstream media protect Obama, Blame shutdown, Pre and post shutdown data paints gloomy job picture, Labor force participation rate and part time jobs

Jobs report November 8, 2013, AP and mainstream media protect Obama, Blame shutdown, Pre and post shutdown data paints gloomy job picture, Labor force participation rate and part time jobs

“11.4%: What the U.S. unemployment rate would be if labor force participation were back to January 2008 levels.” …James Pethokoukis, American Enterprise Institute, June 2013

“Approximately 1 million more people could only find part time employment since Obama took office in January 2009.”…Citizen Wells August 2013

“Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.”…George Orwell, “1984″

The AP and mainstream have come to the aid of Obama prior to the release of the October jobs report. They have been preparing us for gloomy employment data by blaming it on the shutdown. While the employment data could be minimally skewed by the government shutdown, data prior to and after the shutdown reveals the truth about Obama’s economy.

From the Greensboro News Record November 7, 2013.

(The print edition heading was: “Jobs report will reflect shutdown”)

“Why a spike in October unemployment may not be so bad”

“The jobs report for October due out Friday may be bleak. It might even be scary. The unemployment rate could jump by the most in three years. Hiring may slow from an already weak pace.

Don’t panic.

The ugly figures will reflect the government’s partial shutdown, which coincided with 16 days in October. The trends for the job market will likely reverse themselves in coming months.

“It’s going to be a very messy report, and I don’t think we think should take it at face value,” said Jennifer Lee, an economist at BMO Capital Markets.
Economists warn that the unemployment rate could surge as high as 7.5 percent from 7.2 percent in September. That would be the steepest one-month rise since 2010.

The number of jobs added in October could slow to roughly 120,000 from the 148,000 added in September. That isn’t healthy. In the first nine months of this year, the average job gain was 180,000.

The shutdown will be mostly to blame. But its effect on the data won’t be easy to tease out. Economists have all but thrown up their hands trying to forecast Friday’s figures or to suggest what they might mean. However the numbers turn out, the distortions mean the monthly jobs data will be less useful in gauging the economy’s health than they normally are.

“We have much less confidence in these numbers than usual,” economists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch wrote in a note for clients.
Why the confusion?”

Read more:

http://www.news-record.com/news/local_news/article_199cdf62-4745-11e3-8138-001a4bcf6878.html

Pre shutdown data

………………………………………………. Jan 2009           Aug 2013

Labor force participation rate                 65.7                      63.2

Employment-population ratio                 60.6                     58.6

Want a job now                                               5700K                 6285K
not in labor force

From the Independent Review Journal September 19, 2013.
“5 Years Later: 16 Stats That Put Any Liberal’s Claim That Our Economy Is Healthy to Shame”

  • There are 12.6 percent more part time jobs and 4.6 percent fewer full time jobs.
  • Even with part time workers being counted the stated unemployment rate is 7.3 percent instead of 5 percent.
  • The labor force participation rate has plummeted 3 percent.
  • The average length of unemployment has risen from 17.7 weeks to 37 weeks.
  • Median household income has dropped $ 5,000.

http://www.ijreview.com/2013/09/80348-16-stats-put-claim-economy-healthy-shame/

From the former US Labor Dept. BLS chief Keith Hall August 5, 2013.

“The July government employment report released Friday showed the job market treading water.”And a closer look at one of the two measures the Labor Department uses to gauge employment suggests that part-time work accounted for almost all the job growth that’s been reported over the past six months. …” ‘Over the last six months, of the net job creation, 97 percent of that is part-time work,’ said Keith Hall, a senior researcher at George Mason University’s Mercatus Center. ‘That is really remarkable.’”Hall is no ordinary academic. He ran the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the agency that puts out the monthly jobs report, from 2008 to 2012. Over the past six months, he said, the Household Survey shows 963,000 more people reporting that they were employed, and 936,000 of them reported they’re in part-time jobs.” ‘That is a really high number for a six-month period,’ Hall said. ‘I’m not sure that has ever happened over six months before.’ “”
“How, then, to explain what’s happened since January? Back to the McClatchy article and Hall, the former BLS chief:

“Hall speculated that the implementation of the Affordable Care Act, shorthanded as Obamacare, might be resulting in employers shifting workers to part-time status to avoid coming health care obligations.”

http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/kyle-wingfield/2013/aug/05/obamacare-economy-35-part-time-jobs-every-new-full/

Recent Job News.

From The Economic Collapse Blog October 14, 2013.

“#9 The number of announced job cuts in September 2013 was 19 percent higher than the number of announced job cuts in September 2012.

#10 The labor force participation rate is the lowest that it has been in 35 years.

#11 As I mentioned the other day, the labor force participation rate for men in the 18 to 24 year old age bracket is at an all-time low.

#12 Approximately one out of every four part-time workers in America is living below the poverty line.

#13 Incredibly, only 47 percent of all adults in America have a full-time job at this point.”

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/22-reasons-to-be-concerned-about-the-u-s-economy-as-we-head-into-the-holiday-season

ADP October 2013 Employment Report.

“According to ADP National Employment Report findings, the U.S. private sector added a total of 130,000 jobs during the month of October, well below the average of the last twelve months. Small business growth was down from the previous month, while payrolls among large enterprises showed an increase.”

– Carlos Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP

Download the Press Release

View This Month’s Small Business Report

Change in Nonfarm Private Employment (in thousands) Tweet this chart

 

Read more:

http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/2013/October/NER/NER-October-2013.aspx

“U.S. planned layoffs rise in Oct -Challenger”

“The number of planned layoffs at U.S. firms rose 13.5 percent in October on cuts in the pharmaceutical and financial sectors, a report on Wednesday showed.

Employers announced 45,730 layoffs last month, up from 40,289 in September, according to the report from consultants Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.”

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/06/usa-economy-jobs-challenger-idUSN9N0H000520131106

Durable Goods capital expenditures disappoint, Revised downward, September 25, 2013 Census report, Bernanke and Fed correct on bad economy

Durable Goods capital expenditures disappoint, Revised downward, September 25, 2013 Census report, Bernanke and Fed correct on bad economy

“Over the last six months, of the net job creation, 97 percent of that is part-time work,”…Keith Hall, former BLS chief

“I don’t think the Fed can get interest rates up very much, because the
economy is weak, inflation rates are low. If we were to tighten policy, the
economy would tank.”…Ben Bernanke, July 17, 2013

“Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.”…George Orwell, “1984″

From Zero Hedge September 25, 2013.

“Core Durable Goods, CapEx Both Miss; Revised Downward”

“Moments ago we got the latest confirmation the much delayed capital expenditures corporate spending spree – aside for airplanes ordered on spec of course – just refuses to arrive.

While the headline durable goods print rose by a modest 0.1% in August, and beat expectations of a -0.2% decline, this was offset by a prior month revision lower from -7.3% to -8.1%, in effect netting even worse for the current month, and likely resulting in even more declines in Q3 GDP tracking estimates. More importantly, when stripping away airplane orders (on spec, and which are just a function of the credit environment), durable goods declines -0.1% on expectations of a 1.0% increase, which also was the third consecutive miss in this series in a row. Finally, the two most important metric tracking pure CapEx: capital goods orders and shipments non-defense excluding aircraft, both missed expectations, rising at 1.5% vs 2.0%, and 1.3% vs Exp. 1.5%, respectively. It looks like the Fed (and all those other skeptics who called “bull” on the latest talk of a recovery) was well aware of just how bad things in the economy are, and becoming, when it decided not to taper after all.”

Read more:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-25/core-durable-goods-capex-both-miss-revised-downward

US and NC economy and jobs much worse than reported, Bernanke exposed the fragility of the US economy, Media under reports, Financial markets ignore, It is about people and families

US and NC economy and jobs much worse than reported, Bernanke exposed the fragility of the US economy, Media under reports, Financial markets ignore, It is about people and families

“Over the last six months, of the net job creation, 97 percent of that is part-time work,”…Keith Hall, former BLS chief

“The Labor Force Participation Rate in NC has dropped 1.6 percent in 2013.”…Citizen Wells

“Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.”…George Orwell, “1984″

 

 

 

 

I have tried to report the reality of the economy and jobs situation in the US and my home state of NC.

Even though I write about and comment about politicians, I am pretty much apolitical.

After all, what happens in this country is about people, their families and their lives.

I was touched recently by this ad in Craigslist.

“IM LOOKING FOR SOMEONE TO TAKE OVER PAYMENTS ON MY WHITE 2008 KIA SPECTRA. THE PAYMENTS ARE AROUND $225 PER MONTH. IT IS IN GOOD CONDITION WITH AROUND 80,000 MILES ON IT. I RECENTLY LOST MY JOB AND CAN NO LONGER MAKE PAYMENTS. MAKE A REASONABLE OFFER AND IT IS YOURS!”

This is not a statistic.

It is a real person who has lost a job.

I know and I am certain that you know people who have been affected by the job market and economy.

From Citizen Wells September 20, 2013.

The article from Independent Review Journal, in a series of graphs, paints a picture of the true state of the economy and the changes in the past 5 years.

  • There are 12.6 percent more part time jobs and 4.6 percent fewer full time jobs.
  • Even with part time workers being counted the stated unemployment rate is 7.3 percent instead of 5 percent.
  • The labor force participation rate has plummeted 3 percent.
  • The average length of unemployment has risen from 17.7 weeks to 37 weeks.
  • Median household income has dropped $ 5,000.

Read more:

https://citizenwells.wordpress.com/2013/09/20/us-economy-healthy-obama-democrat-economic-policies-helped-12-6-more-part-time-jobs-high-unemployment-labor-force-plummeted-average-length-of-unemployment-more-than-double-median-household-in/

I would like to thank Zero Hedge for this article.

“What Bernanke Did”

“What Ben Bernanke did by not Tapering was expose the fragility of the US economy for all to see. His actions, Mises Institute’s Peter Klein explains in this brief clip, based on the premise that the US economy was not capable of sustaining any reduction in the $85 billion per month stimulus free-money, means once again “the economy is so dependent on artificial stimulation from the central bank… that the economy is in another artificial boom just like the artificial boom we have been trying to get out of.” Critically, for all those proclaiming the US as a “cleanest shirt,” Bernanke proved them wrong (and exposed the fallacy of data such as the unemployment rate and jobless claims as having any value – as we have explained).”

Read more:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-21/what-bernanke-did

 

 

NC unemployment rate August 2013 drops due to .2 percent labor force participation rate, Labor force dropouts, 1.6 percent drop in labor force in 2013 not new jobs

NC unemployment rate August 2013 drops due to .2 percent labor force participation rate, Labor force dropouts, 1.6 percent drop in labor force in 2013 not new jobs

“Over the last six months, of the net job creation, 97 percent of that is part-time work,”…Keith Hall, former BLS chief

“In the Triad, a number of studies have ranked the area among the nation’s worst in terms of poverty and food hardship.”

““You have the people that were barely making it with 40 hours. Now, they’re below 30 hours and have the same household bills,” Sturdivant said. “And at the end of the day, if they go out and get another part-time job, they still won’t have insurance.””...Greensboro News Record September 2, 2013

“Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.”…George Orwell, “1984″

 

 

The stated unemployment rate for NC in August is 8.7 percent.

Good news?

No!

The labor force particpation rate dropped .2 percent last month!

It has dropped 1.6 percent in 2013!!!

This is huge news.

The Greensboro News Record could only state this.

“The trend of falling unemployment rates across the country has come, in large part, due to the number of people who stopped looking for a job. The government does not count those people as unemployed.”

http://www.news-record.com/business/article_090bb4be-220d-11e3-8a99-001a4bcf6878.html