Jobs report November 8, 2013, AP and mainstream media protect Obama, Blame shutdown, Pre and post shutdown data paints gloomy job picture, Labor force participation rate and part time jobs
“11.4%: What the U.S. unemployment rate would be if labor force participation were back to January 2008 levels.” …James Pethokoukis, American Enterprise Institute, June 2013
“Approximately 1 million more people could only find part time employment since Obama took office in January 2009.”…Citizen Wells August 2013
“Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.”…George Orwell, “1984″
The AP and mainstream have come to the aid of Obama prior to the release of the October jobs report. They have been preparing us for gloomy employment data by blaming it on the shutdown. While the employment data could be minimally skewed by the government shutdown, data prior to and after the shutdown reveals the truth about Obama’s economy.
From the Greensboro News Record November 7, 2013.
(The print edition heading was: “Jobs report will reflect shutdown”)
“Why a spike in October unemployment may not be so bad”
“The jobs report for October due out Friday may be bleak. It might even be scary. The unemployment rate could jump by the most in three years. Hiring may slow from an already weak pace.
The ugly figures will reflect the government’s partial shutdown, which coincided with 16 days in October. The trends for the job market will likely reverse themselves in coming months.
“It’s going to be a very messy report, and I don’t think we think should take it at face value,” said Jennifer Lee, an economist at BMO Capital Markets.
Economists warn that the unemployment rate could surge as high as 7.5 percent from 7.2 percent in September. That would be the steepest one-month rise since 2010.
The number of jobs added in October could slow to roughly 120,000 from the 148,000 added in September. That isn’t healthy. In the first nine months of this year, the average job gain was 180,000.
The shutdown will be mostly to blame. But its effect on the data won’t be easy to tease out. Economists have all but thrown up their hands trying to forecast Friday’s figures or to suggest what they might mean. However the numbers turn out, the distortions mean the monthly jobs data will be less useful in gauging the economy’s health than they normally are.
“We have much less confidence in these numbers than usual,” economists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch wrote in a note for clients.
Why the confusion?”
Pre shutdown data
………………………………………………. Jan 2009 Aug 2013
Labor force participation rate 65.7 63.2
Employment-population ratio 60.6 58.6
Want a job now 5700K 6285K
not in labor force
From the Independent Review Journal September 19, 2013.
“5 Years Later: 16 Stats That Put Any Liberal’s Claim That Our Economy Is Healthy to Shame”
- There are 12.6 percent more part time jobs and 4.6 percent fewer full time jobs.
- Even with part time workers being counted the stated unemployment rate is 7.3 percent instead of 5 percent.
- The labor force participation rate has plummeted 3 percent.
- The average length of unemployment has risen from 17.7 weeks to 37 weeks.
- Median household income has dropped $ 5,000.
From the former US Labor Dept. BLS chief Keith Hall August 5, 2013.
“The July government employment report released Friday showed the job market treading water.”And a closer look at one of the two measures the Labor Department uses to gauge employment suggests that part-time work accounted for almost all the job growth that’s been reported over the past six months. …” ‘Over the last six months, of the net job creation, 97 percent of that is part-time work,’ said Keith Hall, a senior researcher at George Mason University’s Mercatus Center. ‘That is really remarkable.’”Hall is no ordinary academic. He ran the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the agency that puts out the monthly jobs report, from 2008 to 2012. Over the past six months, he said, the Household Survey shows 963,000 more people reporting that they were employed, and 936,000 of them reported they’re in part-time jobs.” ‘That is a really high number for a six-month period,’ Hall said. ‘I’m not sure that has ever happened over six months before.’ “”
“How, then, to explain what’s happened since January? Back to the McClatchy article and Hall, the former BLS chief:
“Hall speculated that the implementation of the Affordable Care Act, shorthanded as Obamacare, might be resulting in employers shifting workers to part-time status to avoid coming health care obligations.”
Recent Job News.
From The Economic Collapse Blog October 14, 2013.
“#9 The number of announced job cuts in September 2013 was 19 percent higher than the number of announced job cuts in September 2012.
#10 The labor force participation rate is the lowest that it has been in 35 years.
#11 As I mentioned the other day, the labor force participation rate for men in the 18 to 24 year old age bracket is at an all-time low.
#12 Approximately one out of every four part-time workers in America is living below the poverty line.
#13 Incredibly, only 47 percent of all adults in America have a full-time job at this point.”
ADP October 2013 Employment Report.
“According to ADP National Employment Report findings, the U.S. private sector added a total of 130,000 jobs during the month of October, well below the average of the last twelve months. Small business growth was down from the previous month, while payrolls among large enterprises showed an increase.”
– Carlos Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP
Change in Nonfarm Private Employment (in thousands) Tweet this chart
“U.S. planned layoffs rise in Oct -Challenger”
“The number of planned layoffs at U.S. firms rose 13.5 percent in October on cuts in the pharmaceutical and financial sectors, a report on Wednesday showed.
Employers announced 45,730 layoffs last month, up from 40,289 in September, according to the report from consultants Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.”