July unemployment rate August 2, 2013, ADP jobs report in sync with BLS, Initial claims reflect labor force dropouts, NFIB Trimtabs SurePayroll reports minimal or decreased July hiring
“North Carolina’s unemployment rate fell for the fourth consecutive month in May to 8.8 percent, but the slight drop was largely due to a shrinking labor force rather than the creation of new jobs, economists said.”…Raleigh News Observer June 21, 2013
“11.4%: What the U.S. unemployment rate would be if labor force participation were back to January 2008 levels.” …James Pethokoukis, American Enterprise Institute, June 2013
“the Times of the nineteenth of December had published the official forecasts of the output of various classes of consumption goods in the fourth quarter of 1983, which was also the sixth quarter of the Ninth Three-Year Plan. Today’s issue contained a statement of the actual output, from which it appeared that the forecasts were in every instance grossly wrong. Winston’s job was to rectify the original figures by making them agree with the later ones.”…George Orwell, “1984″
You are being lied to.
*** Update 8:30 AM ***
July unemployment rate 7.4 %
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 162,000.
*** Attention: Once again, the labor force dropped .1 % !!! ***
Labor Force Participation Rate 63.4 %.
The US Labor Department will release the July 2013 unemployment rate in a few minutes.
Regardless of what the rate is, it will be misleading due to the record drop in the Labor Force Participation Rate and increase in part time workers.
This comes on the heels of two jobs reports this week.
Yesterday, the BLS reported initial claims of 321,000, the lowest in 5 years. This number is a reflection of a smaller labor force and a smaller number of full time workers.
The biggest suspect report came from ADP.
“ADP NATIONAL EMPLOYMENT REPORT: PRIVATE SECTOR EMPLOYMENT INCREASED BY 200,000 JOBS IN JULY
ROSELAND, N.J. – July 31, 2013 – Private-sector employment increased by 200,000 jobs from June to July, according to the July ADP National Employment Report®. Broadly distributed to the public each month, free of charge, the ADP National Employment Report is produced by ADP®, a leading provider of human capital management solutions, in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data and measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis. June’s job gain was revised upward from 188,000 to 198,000.
July 2013 Report Highlights*
View the ADP National Employment Report Infograph at http://www.adpemploymentreport.com.
Total U.S. Nonfarm Private Employment: 200,000
By Company Size
Small businesses: 82,000
o 1-19 employees 51,000
o 20-49 employees 31,000
Medium businesses: 60,000
o 50-499 employees 60,000
Large businesses: 57,000
o 500-999 employees 7,000
o 1,000+ employees 50,000”
There are several problems with the ADP report.
From the ADP methodology:
“Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) has joined with Moody’s Analytics in order to use ADP’s large payroll data set to predict private-sector employment prior to the release of the CES report.”
Read it for yourself.
SWAG may be too kind a word for this.
From NFIB, National Federation of Independent Business, July 31, 2013.
“NFIB Jobs Statement: Few Jobs and Poor Prospects”
“Chief economist for the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) William C. Dunkelberg, issued the following statement on July’s job numbers, based on NFIB’s monthly economic survey that will be released on Tuesday, August 13th. The survey was conducted in July and reflects the responses of 1,615 sampled NFIB members: graph
“July was another slow month for jobs among NFIB’s 350,000 owners, with the average increase in employment coming in at a negative 0.11 workers per firm, the third negative monthly reading in a row.”
From CNBC July 31, 2013.
“Big jobs number coming? Data firm TrimTabs says just 23,000”
“Before anyone gets too excited about job prospects for July, a data firm is reporting that payroll growth was much slower than expected.
TrimTabs estimated Wednesday that employment slowed to a trickle, with just 23,000 positions added for the month.”
“In June, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the economy added 195,000, while TrimTabs put the number at a relatively close 182,000. In May, though, the disparity was far greater, with the government asserting 195,000 while TrimTabs estimated 135,000.”
“TrimTabs isn’t the only outfit with a dim view of July jobs, though.
Small-business payroll firm SurePayroll said hiring actually decreased 0.1 percent for the month.”
In case you have forgotten.
Welcome to the age of Big Brother.