Tag Archives: Computer model reveals possibility

US Ebola cases exceed 24 by November 2014, Computer model reveals possibility, Northeastern University professor Alessandro Vespignani, All it takes is 1 mistake

US Ebola cases exceed 24 by November 2014, Computer model reveals possibility, Northeastern University professor Alessandro Vespignani, All it takes is 1 mistake

“Barack Obama is endangering the children of the US and now our troops. Where is the outrage?”…Citizen Wells

“You can see that these doctors, who are highly trained people, got themselves infected,”
“So sending troops into an area, if they’re dealing one-on-one with a patient, they’re not going to be able to protect themselves very well. It’s not easy to [prevent transmission], because you get tired and you get careless and you make some simple mistakes. All it takes is one virus particle.”…Dr. Lee Hieb, former president of the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons

“Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.”…George Orwell, “1984″

 

 

All it takes is one mistake, one person diagnosed too late, in the middle of cold flu season, with enough contact with others.

From Bloomberg October 16, 2014.

“U.S. Ebola Cases May Exceed Two Dozen by November, Researchers Say”

“There could be as many as two dozen people in the U.S. infected with Ebola by the end of the month, according to researchers tracking the virus with a computer model.

The actual number probably will be far smaller and limited to a couple of airline passengers who enter the country already infected without showing symptoms, and the health workers who care for them, said Alessandro Vespignani, a Northeastern University professor who runs computer simulations of infectious disease outbreaks. The two newly infected nurses in Dallas don’t change the numbers because they were identified quickly and it’s unlikely they infected other people, he said.

The projections only run through October because it’s too difficult to model what will occur if the pace of the outbreak changes in WestAfrica, where more than 8,900 people have been infected and 4,500 have died, he said. If the outbreak isn’t contained, the numbers may rise significantly.”

““We have a worst-case scenario, and you don’t even want to know,” Vespignani said. “We could have widespread epidemics in other countries, maybe the Far East. That would be like a bad science fiction movie.”

The worst case would occur if Ebola acquires pandemic status and is no longer contained in West Africa, he said. It would be a catastrophic event, one Vespignani said he is confident won’t happen.”

Read more:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-16/u-s-ebola-cases-may-exceed-two-dozen-by-november-.html

 

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