Tag Archives: Housing report dismal to correlate with horrible jobs and economic data

April housing starts, Media lies and reports anything but truth to prop up Obama, Housing report dismal to correlate with horrible jobs and economic data, Single family starts 61 percent of 2007 levels, 41 percent of Bush presidency best

April housing starts, Media lies and reports anything but truth to prop up Obama, Housing report dismal to correlate with horrible jobs and economic data, Single family starts 61 percent of 2007 levels, 41 percent of Bush presidency best

“You can’t fix stupid.”…Ron White

 

“Why does the mainstream media continue to protect Obama and lie to the American people?”…Citizen Wells

Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.”…George Orwell, “1984”

 

You have to believe that the folks producing the reports in the mainstream media about the economy and in this case housing starts, are not as stupid as they appear.

It is all about protecting Obama and the hell with the facts.

You have probably read or heard the exciting news, which further stimulated the financial markets, about the big jump in housing starts in April. The so called 20 percent increase.

Here is the truth.

First from Zero Hedge.

“Following two ugly months of dramatically missed expectations, Housing Starts exploded to ‘recovery’ highs (highest since Nov 2007) jumping 20.2% MoM to 1.135million (against 1.015 exp.).”

“Well these huge mal-investment spikes make perfect sense in light of the collapse in lumber prices (and thus demand).”

HousingStartsLumber

Read more:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-19/housing-starts-surge-highest-nov-2007-permits-7-year-highs

Hold that thought.

Here is the report.

“NEW RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION IN APRIL 2015
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced the following new residential
construction statistics for April 2015:”

“HOUSING STARTS
Privately-owned housing starts in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,135,000. This is 20.2 percent (±14.4%) above the
revised March estimate of 944,000 and is 9.2 percent (±10.6%)* above the April 2014 rate of 1,039,000.
Single-family housing starts in April were at a rate of 733,000; this is 16.7 percent (±10.6%) above the revised March figure of 628,000.
The April rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 389,000.”

http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf

Let’s examine it.

First, the 20 percent increase was for privately owned which includes single and multi family. We all know that rentals are where the action is since fewer people are able to afford homes, especially millenials.

The single family increase was 16.7 percent, but hold on:

A. The increase was over March which had dropped significantly.
B. There is a statistical sampling error of +- 10.6 percent.
C. The single family starts was 733,000.
D. That is 61 percent of the April 2007 figure of 1,197,000.
E. That is 41 percent of the best number for the Bush presidency in Nov. 2005 of 1,808,000.

HousingStarts

The thought I asked you to hold above.

Revealed by Zero Hedge about lumber prices and futures.

Supply and demand.

Lumber prices.

LumberPrices

From Reuters May 18, 2015.

“U.S. home builder sentiment slips in May: NAHB”

“Consumers are exhibiting caution, and want to be on more stable financial footing before purchasing a home,” NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe said in a statement.”

“The single-family home sales component fell to 59 from 61 in April. The gauge of single-family sales expectations for the next six months rose to 64 from a revised 63, while prospective buyer traffic fell to 39 from a revised 40.”

Read more:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/18/us-usa-economy-housing-nahb-idUSKBN0O31EY20150518

 

 

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