Economist Jan Hatzius baby boomer impact debate with Citizen Wells, Drop in percent of population working, Email debate, Both agree not enough jobs, 2 percent allegation in CNBC interview

Economist Jan Hatzius baby boomer impact debate with Citizen Wells, Drop in percent of population working, Email debate, Both agree not enough jobs, 2 percent allegation in CNBC interview

“The road to hell is paved with good intentions.”…Karl Marx

“Over the last six months, of the net job creation, 97 percent of that is part-time work,”…Keith Hall, former BLS chief

“Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.”…George Orwell, “1984″

 

 

Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius was interviewed on CNBC on Friday, February 6, 2015 after the January jobs report.

From Citizen Wells February 7, 2015.

From Zero Hedge February 6, 2015.

“Following the January jobs report, Goldman’s chief economist Jan Hatzius appeared on CNBC but instead of joining Steve Liesman in singing the praises of the “strong” the report (which apparently missed the memo about  the  crude collapse), he decided to do something totally different and instead emphasize the two series that none other than Zero Hedge has been emphasizing for years as the clearest indication of what is really happening with the US labor market: namely the recession-level civilian employment to population ratio and the paltry annual increase in average hourly earnings.

This is what Hatzius said (2:40 into the clip):

The employment to population ratio is still 4% below where it was in 2006. You can explain 2% of that with the aging of the population that still leaves quite a lot of room potentially, and the wage numbers are telling us we are just not that close, although we are getting closer.””

Read more:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-06/why-goldman-suddenly-banging-table-scariest-chart-jobs-report

I sent the following email to  Jan Hatzius.

I have not yet received a response.

Hi.
I have a math, computer science & business background.
I am also one of the baby boomers.
You recently appeared on CNBC & stated:

The employment to population ratio is still 4% below where it was in 2006. You can explain 2% of that with the aging of the population that still leaves quite a lot of room potentially, and the wage numbers are telling us we are just not that close, although we are getting closer.”

Would you elaborate on:

“You can explain 2% of that with the aging of the population”

I am preparing an article

and want to be accurate.

Thanks

Wells

 

https://citizenwells.wordpress.com/2015/02/07/cnbc-jobs-lies-goldman-sachs-economist-jan-hatzius-interview-baby-boomer-impact-lie-nbc-leading-way-in-orwellian-media-lies-citizen-wells-email-to-hatzius-for-clarification/

Jan Hatzius did respond in less than 24 hours and we debated via email the validity of his statement:

“You can explain 2% of that with the aging of the population”

I will not present the entire exchange unless he requests it.

Here are our ending remarks.

Mine:

“Thanks for your response.

I have no wish to be unkind to you.
However, I consider it a “sacred” duty to report the truth, facts.
For what it is worth, I have much German ancestry and was baptized and raised in the Lutheran Church.
I even worked as VP of Administration for a German company in the US circa 1983.

Apples and oranges.
The studies that you quote are projections done in 2006, not historical analysis.
I am not questioning the projections.
They are projections probably done by competent people using the best data available.
But they are projections, not history, done before probably the biggest anomaly in recorded US job history.

What we are addressing is simple.
The percent of people employed in 2006 vs now.
It does not matter what the mix of age groups employed is.
The problem is that there are not enough jobs now of the right type to give the same ratio as in 2006.
The problem is exacerbated by too many part time jobs which yield a result of too many people working multiple jobs.
Thanks
Wells”
Jan Hatzius:

“It is also true that there are not enough jobs. That’s why I said population aging accounts for 2 of the 4 percentage points of decline, not for the entire decline.
Best regards,
Jan”

I would like to thank Jan Hatzius again. He did not have to respond.

I will leave it to the reader to decide who is right.

However, I found an article that may provide insight.

From Fortune November 6, 2012.

“Obama’s best friend at Goldman Sachs”

“To be sure, the German-born Hatzius hasn’t publicly stated that he supports the President. But his analysis, which is widely read in financial circles, has long jibed with the monetary and fiscal policies embraced by Democrats. In numerous notes published over the last few years, Hatzius has advocated stimulus spending and called for more quantitative easing, renouncing efforts to slash the deficit as premature.”

“Hatzius’ views have endeared him to the likes of liberal economist Paul Krugman, who has mentioned the Goldmanite nearly a dozen times in his New York Timesblog. Krugman has repeatedly referred to Hatzius’ group as “excellent,” calling the economist a “very calm, measured guy.” Back in 2009, he noted that Hatzius’ analysis was “spot on.””

“Hatzius sounded warnings about the housing market as early as 2005, when he published a report that asked “Bubble Trouble? Probably Yes.” In December of 2007, the economics writer Ben Stein criticized Hatzius in the New York Times for his gloomy prognostications, accusing the economist of fear-mongering in order to support Goldman’s bearish position.

Stein (incorrectly) mocked Hatzius for his view that the subprime mortgage crisis could spin out of control, hampering lending and slowing growth. “He is also postulating,” Stein wrote, “that lenders would have to retrench so deeply that lending would stall and growth would falter — an event that, again, has not happened on any scale in the postwar world, except when planned by the central bank.” (The piece, available here, is worth reading for its comedic value alone).”

Read more:

http://fortune.com/2012/11/06/obamas-best-friend-at-goldman-sachs/

Further remarks from Citizen Wells:

“The reason that we have a 4 percent drop in the p of p, percent of population, working is that we do not enough jobs and
good full time jobs to maintain the same ratio.

The problem is exacerbated by too many part time jobs which yield a result of too many people working multiple jobs.

In 2006 we knew how the population was growing in terms of births and deaths with some anticipated immigration.

We did not know that the economy was going to collapse and that Obama would permit a flow of illegals to enter our country
and workforce. We also did not know that much of the job growth was going to be in part time and lower wage positions.

Regarding baby boomers and their impact on the job market.

This is being tossed about indiscriminately without justification.

We are on the leading edge of baby boomers reaching the traditional retirement age of 65.

Most of the baby boomers, which include those born up to 1964, have not reached retirement age yet.

Some people retire before that age but in recent years there has been a trend of retiring later.

Older workers generally have a more beneficial impact on the p of p ratio. Those retiring generally are retiring from a
full time job. Many of those who continue to work are in one part time job.

This yields a one to one scenario of one person to one job.

Younger people are having a more detrimental impact on the p of p ratio.

Because so many of the jobs being created are part time and/or lower wage jobs, the younger folks are working 2 or more of
these jobs.

This is hurting the ratio.

Also, unlike what you are being led to believe, there are far more of the younger people.

Let’s take the example of those turning 65 in 2014, born in 1949 and those turning 22 in 2014, born in 1992. I chose age
22 to account for college even though some of them entered the work force earlier, if they could find a job.

There were 3.56 million people born in the US in 1949. 85 % or 3.026 million are alive.

There were 4.08 million people born in 1992. Probably at least 4 million still alive.

Let’s assume that all of the people who turned 65 retired.

That is still a net gain of about a million in the workforce.

I mentioned above that in 2006 we did not know that Obama would allow so many illegal immigrants into the US.

Recently I reported about the even bigger drop in the p of p ratio in NC.

From Citizen Wells February 3, 2015.

“The plummet of the labor force participation rate in NC, other states and the US is big news and should be more widely
reported.

The percentage of the population working is also important and in some ways more significant.

Since the big news today was the lowest so called initial claims number in 15 years let’s go back to January 2000 and
compare the employment to population percent from then to now.

US
Jan 2000 64.6

Dec 2014 59.2

That’s a plummet of 5.4 percent!

NC
Jan 2000 65.1

Dec 2014 56.5

That’s a plummet of 8.6 percent !!!”

https://citizenwells.wordpress.com/2015/02/03/5-6-percent-unemployment-rate-big-lie-gallups-jim-clifton-white-house-wall-street-and-media-lies-30-million-americans-out-of-work-or-severely-underemployed-percent-of-population-working-plummets/

From the Center for Immigration Studies August 2014.

“An analysis of government data by the Center for Immigration Studies shows that, since 2000, all of the net increase in the number of working-age (16 to 65) people holding a job in North Carolina has gone to immigrants (legal and illegal).
This is the case even though the native-born accounted for 61 percent of growth in the state’s total working-age population.”

Read more:

http://cis.org/all-north-carolina-employment-growth-since-2000-went-to-immigrants

In conclusion, the answer is simple.

We do not have enough good jobs to maintain the same ratio of people working that we had in 2006.

The CEO of Gallup tells it like it is.

 

 

 

 

Advertisements

19 responses to “Economist Jan Hatzius baby boomer impact debate with Citizen Wells, Drop in percent of population working, Email debate, Both agree not enough jobs, 2 percent allegation in CNBC interview

  1. “Post-Crisis Scorecard: Debt Up $57 Trillion, 60% Of Jobs Created Are Low Level, Record Youth Living With Parents”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-08/post-crisis-scorecard-debt-57-trillion-60-jobs-created-are-low-level-record-youth-li

  2. Just between me you and the gatepost, I would venture to offer…..a projection is just that, and theory is just that,and if fact is distorted it too is unreliable,and all three become VARIABLES. So far I have seen nothing in the way of a CONSTANT.

  3. CW……..
    I have another question. Have you wondered why all the scaffolding around the WACKY HOUSE DOME. Could Soetoro already be turning it into the white mosque?

  4. It is so sad that the government can lie about the state of everything from the economy to national security threats and the adoring masses accept what they say.

    The only folks I know that are doing well now are those in the oil field industry, or those that had good stable careers that kept them above water since 2008. Everyone else is struggling to do more with less.
    Those near retirement in 2008 lost much of their retirement in the market so they are struggling to recapture. Those in retirement are NOT making the interest on their money like they expected so they are depleting their principal. And way too many were forced into foreclosure.

    That was SEVEN years ago.

    I don’t understand how they cannot connect the dots.

  5. Bob,

    Thanks for your comments. I enjoy reading your posts.

    I’m very concerned the direction Obama is taking this country. It’s time to move forward and start proceedings to impeach Obama.

    I found the following article on the impeachment process.
    I realize impeachment may not happen, but it will expose and
    draw Obama out into the open. To me, Obama gets an F on his report card. My question is: “WHO WILL START IMPEACHMENT PROCEEDINGS AGAINST OBAMA?”
    —————————————————————————
    Impeachment is a two-step process that starts in the House. All it takes is a simple majority of that chamber to approve a single article of impeachment against the president for “Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors.” Once that happens, a president is forever branded as having been impeached. President Andrew Johnson (1868) and President Bill Clinton (1998) share that distinction. President Richard Nixon resigned in 1974 before the full House could vote to impeach him.

    To officially remove a president from office, two-thirds of the Senate must vote to convict him on those articles of impeachment. Johnson and Clinton were not convicted. Obama could share the same or worse fate. A Republican-controlled Senate could lead to Obama becoming the third president impeached and the first ever to be removed from office.

  6. This is a bombshell of an article by Erik Rush, a noted, conservative, black commentator.

    HANGING OFFENSE IN HIGH PLACES
    Exclusive: Erik Rush hits ‘ruling class’ for protecting their own on Benghazi

    (quote)
    For the record, I have been personally assured by intelligence operatives from the U.S. and Britain, both past and present, that they and other foreign intelligence organizations are “well aware” of who the individual representing himself as Barack Hussein Obama actually is, the parties who orchestrated his rise to power and that his mission is nothing less than to “bring America down.”
    As all indicators reveal, this is precisely what he has been doing, despite the wholesale misrepresentations of the administration and the American press. Intelligence groups from outside the U.S. have approached American media representatives with information concerning Obama’s origins and designs; whether their reticence to engage is due to fear, having been compromised, or ideological affinity is anyone’s guess, but they won’t touch it.

    There’s much more.

    Read at http://mobile.wnd.com/2015/02/hanging-offense-in-high-places/#TgYm4ELyLIqFTC3p.99

  7. oldsailor.
    Afraid it is already the white mosque.

  8. “Quarterly earnings fell (yes fell) 2% from Q4 2013 to Q4 2014 on an operating EPS basis, and as Goldman Sachs notes, was only saved from a much more disastrous fate by Apple. However, don’t worry about the mother’s milk of markets… From now on, everything looks awesome as the hockey-stick extrapolators project EPS growth to resume in its escape velocity gung-ho, higher interest rates are good way by year-end…”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-08/do-you-believe-miracles-2015-earnings-edition

  9. CabbyAZ……..
    Nobody will touch the issue because they are afraid of what will happen to themselves. Most of the MEDIA,and their so called news anchors are ALL in this up to their noses, yet not one of them will stand up and tell it like most of us already know it to be. They don’t understand that eventually they will be caught and when they are caught whether they want to or not they will find themselves saying their LAST PRAYERS before they feel the BITE OF THE BIGHT. Most will probably be whining and crying for their mommies to come and save them. Such people are TOTAL COWARDS,and DESERVE WHAT THEY GET.

  10. CW……
    Here is the name of a financial personality whose outlook might be of primary interest to you. His name is James Rickards. Type the name into your search engine and then pick from all the hits that you will get…….there is one called Project Prophecy, which in my own opinion he has pretty much correct,but my economics understanding is still HIGH SCHOOL LEVEL. It is what you learn AFTER school that counts. Rickards has some pretty interesting stuff.

  11. Want a laugh ?????

      A father walks into a restaurant with his young son. He gives the young boy 3 nickels to play with to keep him occupied. Suddenly, the boy starts choking, going blue in the face. The father realizes the boy has swallowed the nickels and starts slapping him on the back. The boy coughs up 2 of the nickels, but keeps choking.  Looking at his son, the father is panicking, shouting for help.

      A well-dressed, attractive, and serious looking woman in a blue business suit is sitting at the coffee bar reading a newspaper and sipping a cup of coffee.  At the sound of the commotion, she looks up, puts her coffee cup down, neatly folds the newspaper and places it on the counter, gets up from her seat and makes her way, unhurried, across the restaurant. Reaching the boy, the woman carefully drops his pants; takes hold of the boy’s testicles and starts to squeeze and twist, gently at first and then ever so firmly.  After a few seconds the boy convulses violently and coughs up the last nickel, which the woman deftly catches in her free hand. Releasing the boy’s testicles, the woman hands the nickel to the father and walks back to her seat at the coffee bar without saying a word. As soon as he is sure that his son has suffered no ill effects, the father rushes over to the woman and starts thanking her saying, “I’ve never seen anybody do anything like that before, it was fantastic.  Are you a doctor? ” “No,” the woman replied, “I’m with the Internal Revenue Service.”

  12. oldsailor82 | February 8, 2015 at 4:17 pm |

    CW……..
    I have another question. Have you wondered why all the scaffolding around the WACKY HOUSE DOME. Could Soetoro already be turning it into the white mosque?
    ****************************
    oldsailor82,
    When they take the scaffolding down from around the Capitol building, and it has a golden dome on it, then we will know we are screwed!

  13. Rand Paul

    The Federal Reserve’s cronies are terrified of the momentum Audit the Fed is gaining in Congress.

    The Fed Appears Nervous Congress Will Pass Rand Paul’s “Audit The Fed” Bill

    Forbes – The club of U.S. central bankers appears jittery, but it’s not because of interest rates, unemployment, or mortgage-backed securities. It’s because of…
    randpac.com

    http://www.randpac.com/fed-nervous-maybe-thats-good-thing/

  14. Sounds like the usurper is trying to take direct control of the military, like Hitler did, and like dictators do.
    ****************************

    Woodward: Military Mad That Obama Crony Susan Rice Is Telling Generals How To Fight
    Veteran journalist says that isn’t her job.

    Read more at http://www.westernjournalism.com/woodward-military-mad-obamas-crony-susan-rice-telling-generals-fight/#TRPUxsWxc4Oa3z4o.99

  15. Pingback: Drop in percent of population working easily explained, Not baby boomers, 1.5 million net new working age each year, Illegal immigrants, Not enough jobs added, Trying to replace jobs lost not keeping up with growth | Citizen WElls

  16. The Post-Obama Triumph of Conservatism
    Peter Ferrara
    Quietly, underneath the radar, all of Barack Obama’s legacy as President is already crumbling. By the end of 2017, his promise of fundamental transformation will be as faded and forlorn as Ozymandias. More

    http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2015/02/the_postobama_triumph_of_conservatism.html

  17. Pingback: Janet Yellen millenials a mystery, Citizen Wells schools Yellen, Student debt and jobs, Influx of illegals impacting job market, 75 percent of Obama jobs went to Hispanics Latinos, High unemployment rates for young Americans | Citizen WElls

  18. Pingback: Janet Yellen millennials a mystery, Citizen Wells schools Yellen, Student debt and jobs, Influx of illegals impacting job market, 75 percent of Obama jobs went to Hispanics Latinos, High unemployment rates for young Americans | Citizen WElls

  19. Pingback: Goldman Sachs Jan Hatzius Obamacare caused few hundred thousand workers hours cut, Disincentives for full time employment, Involuntary part time employment, White Americans decimated under Obama, Citizen Wells Hatzius jobs debate | Citizen WElls

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s