US and NC employment status, December 7, 2013, Pearl Harbor like surprise for investors, Obama economy forces labor dropouts part time and discouraged workers, Greensboro News Record factual report
“You get a declining unemployment rate. But it appears to be an artifact of people leaving the labor force, not of more people having jobs,”… UNCG Economist Andrew Brod, December 5, 2013
“11.4%: What the U.S. unemployment rate would be if labor force participation were back to January 2008 levels.” …James Pethokoukis, American Enterprise Institute, June 2013
“Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.”…George Orwell, “1984″
Today, December 7, 2013, is the anniversary of the attack on Pearl Harbor.
America was caught sleeping then.
Many investors and policy makers are sleeping now.
The real employment picture in the US and NC is much scarier than most people realize. Partly due to the biased or sloppy reporting of the mainstream media.
I was pleased to read the recent report from the Greensboro News Record about the employment situation in NC.
It attempts to accurately portray employment in the region and NC.
From the News Record December 5, 2013.
“Area jobless rate at 5-year low, but it’s a complicated number”
“The unemployment rate in the Greensboro-High Point metro area is the lowest it has been since the beginning of the jobs crisis at the end of 2008.
The October unemployment rate was 8.3 percent, compared with 9.9 percent in October 2012. The figures were released Thursday by the N.C. Department of Commerce and are adjusted for seasonal-hiring variations.
It’s the lowest unemployment rate for the region since November 2008, when unemployment was 7.9 percent.
Triadwide, job growth for hotels and restaurants is soaring, but jobs in the region’s bedrock industry — manufacturing — are still declining.
The unemployment rate shows that fewer people in the overall labor force in the region are unemployed. But a disturbing trend has emerged that may cast a shadow over that bright statistic.
The metro region’s total labor force is smaller than it was a year ago.
In October 2012, 375,137 people said they were working in the Greensboro-High Point metro area. The most recent figures show that figure has dropped by 6,650 to 368,487.
Economist Andrew Brod said that suggests the employment picture is deteriorating here because unemployed people have simply stopped looking for jobs and are no longer counted as part of the labor force.
“You get a declining unemployment rate. But it appears to be an artifact of people leaving the labor force, not of more people having jobs,” said Brod, a senior research fellow at UNCG’s Bryan school of business.”
The labor force participation rate in NC has plummeted 2 percent since January of 2013.
And speaking of labor force participation rate.
It rose slightly in November in the US. Probably an adjustment for the .3 percent drop in the prior month.
The reported US unemployment rate is 7 percent.
Here are a few reality check numbers.
Since Obama took office in January 2009.
Labor force participation rate.
Jan 2009 65.7 %
Nov 2013 63.0 %
Unemployment rate Blacks.
Jan 2009 12.7 %
Nov 2013 12.5 %
Could only find part time work.
Jan 2009 1,676,000
Nov 2013 2,486,000
Do not be swayed by the mavens of misinformation.
The drop in the labor force participation rate was not caused by baby boomers retiring.